This is The DEFCON Warning System’s global security briefing. Today is Monday, June 2, 2025.
The current condition code is Green. DEFCON 5. There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.
Western Allies Lift Range Restrictions on Weapons Supplied to Ukraine
In a significant shift, the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany have removed range limitations on weapons supplied to Ukraine. Long-range systems such as the British Storm Shadow, French SCALP, and American ATACMS may now be used to strike targets inside Russian territory.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed that Ukraine can defend itself by targeting military sites within Russia. The policy change follows renewed Russian strikes against civilian infrastructure and reflects growing frustration among NATO members over the ongoing war.
Ukraine’s Drone Strike Cripples Russia’s Strategic Bomber Force
Ukraine has inflicted a major blow to Russia’s air-based nuclear deterrent. In a long-range drone campaign dubbed Operation Spider Web, Ukraine destroyed or damaged over 40 Russian strategic bombers, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 aircraft.
These aircraft form a key part of Russia’s nuclear triad, providing flexibility for both nuclear and conventional long-range strikes. With no large-scale production capacity for replacements, Russia’s ability to use its bomber fleet for strategic messaging and rapid escalation is now significantly reduced.
North Korea’s Expanding Nuclear Stockpile
A new report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service estimates that North Korea has produced enough fissile material for up to 90 nuclear warheads and may have already assembled around 50.
This is a sharp increase from prior assessments and reflects North Korea’s ongoing efforts to miniaturize warheads and integrate them into a variety of missile systems, including intercontinental delivery platforms. While verification remains difficult, the trend is unmistakable: Pyongyang is accelerating its pursuit of a flexible and survivable nuclear arsenal.
Iran’s Enriched Uranium Stockpile Rises Sharply
The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Iran has expanded its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to over 408 kilograms, a 50% increase since February. That’s enough, if further enriched, to produce roughly ten nuclear weapons.
While Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful, its continued lack of transparency and refusal to re-engage meaningfully with the IAEA has raised serious concerns among Western governments. Diplomatic efforts continue, with Iran recently meeting Egyptian and UN officials in Cairo, though no breakthrough has been reported.
Germany to Assist Ukraine in Developing Long-Range Missiles
Germany has announced plans to help Ukraine develop its own long-range missile systems. While Berlin has not delivered Taurus cruise missiles directly, it now appears committed to supporting Ukraine’s ability to produce similar capabilities domestically.
This move could reduce Ukraine’s dependence on NATO munitions and allow greater strategic freedom in future operations. It also signals a deepening of German–Ukrainian defense cooperation.
North Korea Advances Warhead Miniaturization
Additional analysis from U.S. defense agencies suggests that North Korea is actively refining its ability to miniaturize nuclear warheads for deployment on short- and medium-range missiles. These advancements increase its capacity for flexible strike options and complicate U.S. and allied missile defense strategies in the region.
The report also raises concerns that North Korea may soon be capable of fielding multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), a development that would further strain regional deterrence frameworks.
Cairo Talks on Iran’s Nuclear Program Yield No Progress
Recent diplomatic talks in Cairo between Iran, Egypt, and UN officials have ended without resolution. Iran rejected the latest IAEA findings as “politically motivated,” while restating that its uranium enrichment remains for civilian purposes only.
Despite the lack of concrete outcomes, the meeting underscores continued international efforts to bring transparency and limits back to Iran’s nuclear activities.
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That concludes this briefing.
