DEFCON Strategic Update – 7/20/26
This is The DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 20th July 2026: Condition Green – DEFCON 5. There
The DEFCON Warning System™
The World’s Only Public Nuclear Threat Advisory System. Independent, real-time analysis of global nuclear tensions. Since 1984.
The DEFCON Warning System
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DEFCON Weekly Strategic Report – 7/13/26
This is The DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 13th July 2026: Condition Green – DEFCON 5. There
Scenario: Israel nuked by Iran
We examine a scenario in which Iran launches a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Israel.
DEFCON Warning System Update for 6 July 2026
This is The DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 6th July 2026: Condition Green – DEFCON 5. There
DEFCON Warning System Strategic Update – 6/28/26
This is The DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 29th June 2026: Condition Green – DEFCON 5. There
What Happens If Iran Gets Nuclear Weapons?
A realistic assessment of how a nuclear-armed Iran would change the Middle East, Israel, and the global balance of power. The most
DEFCON Update – 6/22/26
This is The DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 22nd June 2026: Condition Blue – DEFCON 4. There
What the US–Iran MoU Means for Nuclear Risk
The newly signed US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding is best understood as an interim political framework, not yet a durable nuclear settlement. Its
DEFCON Warning System Update – 15 June 2026
This is The DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 15th June 2026: Condition Blue – DEFCON 4. There
Are We Sure Iran Doesn’t Already Have a Nuclear Weapon?
For years, the conventional wisdom has been clear: Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon. Western intelligence agencies, international inspectors, and most
DEFCON Update – 6/8/26
This is The DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 8th June 2026: Condition Blue – DEFCON 4. There
North Korea Wants More Nuclear Weapons. Should We Be Concerned?
North Korea is openly accelerating its nuclear weapons programme. State media report new reactors and enrichment plants are coming on line. International