The continuing U.S.–Iran conflict remains the most significant immediate area of concern. U.S. forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island after Washington said Revolutionary Guard forces were preparing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by launching missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan, marking the first direct exchange of fire between the two countries since late July. The UAE also intercepted an Iranian drone over its territorial waters. Iran describes the confrontation as limited, while President Masoud Pezeshkian continues to call for a negotiated end to the conflict. The renewed exchange nevertheless increases the danger of an escalation cycle that could further undermine diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Russia–NATO tensions also remain under observation. Russia now describes NATO’s expanding Arctic military presence as a direct security threat and warns that incidents in the region could lead to armed confrontation. This follows increased NATO activity in an area containing important Russian strategic forces, including nuclear-armed submarines. NATO has nevertheless recently said that it sees no imminent Russian attack on alliance territory.

The Korean Peninsula has produced a less encouraging nuclear signal. North Korea has rejected renewed U.S. calls for denuclearisation and says it will continue strengthening its nuclear forces, despite Washington substantially reducing recent joint exercises with South Korea in an effort to encourage diplomacy. Pyongyang’s position does not indicate unusual nuclear-force preparations, but it reduces expectations that the current diplomatic outreach will quickly produce movement on its nuclear programme.

The Saudi–Turkey–Pakistan defence pact is also becoming more institutionalised. The three countries held their first high-level defence committee meeting and are establishing a permanent secretariat while developing a process for additional countries to join. There remains no public evidence that nuclear-armed Pakistan is extending a nuclear guarantee to its partners, but expansion and deeper military integration make the alliance a continuing strategic watch item.

Last assessed: 15:53 UTC, 31 August 2026