Drones and other autonomous vehicle technologies have already significantly influenced the conduct of war. The technology has evolved from simple reconnaissance tools to versatile platforms capable of conducting surveillance, targeted strikes, and electronic warfare. Their low cost, flexibility, and ability to operate without putting human pilots at risk have made them increasingly valuable in conventional military conflicts. The development of more advanced drones, capable of carrying out precision strikes with a high degree of autonomy, has prompted their consideration in strategic scenarios involving nuclear deterrence and warfare.
With their precision targeting ability, drones can also be integrated into nuclear deterrence strategies. For instance, they could also ensure the survival of a country’s nuclear forces by providing continuous surveillance and early warning against potential nuclear threats. Drones can also support a more viable “second-strike” capability, potentially increasing the credibility of nuclear deterrence by ensuring that a country retains a means to retaliate even after a nuclear first strike.
The use of drones in situations where nuclear escalation is a possibility could lead to unintended consequences. The increasing autonomy of drones raises the risk of misinterpretation, as drones could be perceived as a precursor to a more severe attack, even when only conducting reconnaissance. This could trigger a preemptive nuclear strike by an adversary, leading to an inadvertent escalation into full-scale nuclear war. Cold War and subsequent histories show that the danger of inadvertent nuclear escalation is not trivial.
Both the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 and the Able Archer episode in 1983 illustrate the risks of misperception leading to a higher risk of nuclear first use or first strike. The possibility that the expansion of the war in Ukraine from conventional weapons to nuclear first use could occur due to misinterpretations by Russia of Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory with NATO ballistic and cruise missiles, providing one example of concerns in this category. As Lewis A. Dunn, national security analyst and nonproliferation expert, has pointed out, newly re-elected President Donald Trump is faced with a world sliding into nuclear anarchy.
