The DEFCON Warning System™

Ongoing GeoIntel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war. DEFCON Level assessment issued for public notification. Established 1984.

Russia

In Ukraine, Russia is nearly down to its nukes

It was another bad week in Ukraine for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his commanding general, Valery Gerasimov

What Does it Mean to “Defeat Russia” in Ukraine?

Within days of Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022, the State Department undersecretary of state for political affairs, Victoria Neuland, declared

Increasing Military Collaboration Between China and Russia: Causes, Concerns, and Implications

The rising military collaboration between China and Russia has sparked concerns among various nations, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. This alliance appears

The warning signs of nuclear escalation by Russia

Despite ongoing tensions and nuclear talk from Russian officials, the constant fear of a Russian nuclear strike is currently unwarranted; nevertheless, there

Ukraine rejects Western fear that Putin would use nuclear weapons to keep Crimea

Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t use nuclear weapons to retain control of Crimea, according to a senior Ukrainian official who rejected contrary

NATO to surge troops to Russian border

NATO plans to surge troops to Russia’s border as part of an effort to become a “war-fighting alliance,” the New York Times

The Impact of Finland’s NATO Membership on Trans-Atlantic Security Relations

As one of the most stable and prosperous countries in the world, Finland’s decision to join NATO is a critical development in

How Putin’s fate is tied to Russia’s war in Ukraine

I keep thinking back to something I heard on Russian state TV three years ago. At the time Russians were being urged

Experts React: Factors Shaping the Russia-Ukraine Conflict in 2023

As Russia and Ukraine head into year two of a war that has defied expectations, a collection of CSIS experts examined driving

(Radiological) War by Other Means: A Dirty Bomb in Ukraine?

Fear is mightier than the sword, and few things stoke fear like a dirty bomb. So, it should have come as no

What would actually happen if Putin hit Ukraine with tactical nukes?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised the specter of a nuclear attack on Ukraine several times since invading the country in February

Could Putin’s pivot in Ukraine will bring about permanent war in Europe?

Last week, Russia announced that it will make “major changes” to strengthen its armed forces’ during the 2023-2026 time period, a sign