The DEFCON Warning System™

Ongoing GeoIntel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.  DEFCON Level assessment issued for public notification.  Established 1984.

UN Nuclear Chief Expresses Concern for Safety of Large Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant Held by Russia

At a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine on Tuesday, June 13, 2023, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi expressed concern regarding the “relatively dangerous situation” at Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant, after a dam burst in Ukraine and as the country’s military began its counteroffensive against the Russian forces occupying some of its territories.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the power plant has been targeted multiple times and was quickly seized by Russia during the early part of the war.

Grossi reported that he convened with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, to chat about the difficulties facing the nuclear plant that had worsened after the Kakhovka Dam’s was destroyed last week. This dam, located further along the Dnieper River, used to supply the water that helped cool the reactors of the plant. Kyiv has accused Russia of blowing up the dam, an accusation that was denied by Moscow, yet analysts believe that the flood could have disrupted Ukraine’s plans for a counteroffensive.

Grossi declared that the basin which provides the facility with water is declining “quite steadily” but it is not an “immediate danger.” The issue is critical due to due the amount of water that is available there is restricted. He warned that if the barriers that keep the water in were to be breached, then the cooling capacity would be completely lost.

Ukraine has expressed its desire to cold-shutdown the last active reactor. This process includes the insertion of control rods into the reactor core to completely halt fission reactions and the production of heat and pressure. Already, five out of the six reactors at the plant have been cold-shutdown.

The Director General commented on Ukraine’s plans in the context of the Russian-controlled plant, stating that this was “another unwanted situation arising from the anomalous situation.” Ukrainian employees are still managing the plant, albeit with the presence of a heavily armed Russian military. The IAEA delegation is stationed there, and Grossi mentioned that they would be replaced during his visit.

Concern was expressed about the possibility of the plant being exposed to combat conditions again due to the Ukrainian counteroffensive and that, due to the ongoing conflict, it was possible that it could be hit, mathematically speaking.

When questioned regarding Ukrainian apprehensions that the facility might be rigged with explosives, Grossi declared that the IAEA has not “witnessed any heavy military equipment” from the Russians at the plant, and that they had no evidence that there were any military arms, including artillery and munitions, in a capacity that could endanger the facility. Nevertheless, it was noted that it could not be entirely ruled out.

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The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.