The DEFCON Warning System™

Ongoing GeoIntel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.  DEFCON Level assessment issued for public notification.  Established 1984.

In Ukraine, Russia is nearly down to its nukes

It was another bad week in Ukraine for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his commanding general, Valery Gerasimov — bad enough to launch criminal retaliation strikes against civilian targets in Kyiv, which largely failed anyway.

Even the most loyal of the Russian propagandists are at this point bewildered by the self-defeating military strategy and lack of resolve by the Kremlin to go all-in. Vladimir Solovyov called upon Russian citizens to “recognize there is a war going on,” “move to a war footing” and recognize “we’re fighting against NATO.” He then called for more airstrikes on Ukrainian cities.

Sixteen months into the war, Putin and his generals still do not have an answer to Ukraine. Russian ground forces are being routed and humiliated routinely. Entire formations with their officers have surrendered. UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles strike with impunity at locations once considered not at risk.

And Russia’s border is not secure, either. Elements of the pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps, alongside the Freedom of Russia Legion, demonstrated this on May 22 when they conducted a raid in the Belgorod Oblast. The skies over Moscow remain porous as well. The drone strike on the flagpole atop the Kremlin prior to the May 9 Victory Day Parade was repeated on May 30, inviting yet again the wrath of Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin and ultra-nationalist Igor Strelkov on Putin’s inability to protect Russian citizens living in the capital city.

No amount of spin from the Kremlin can change those inconvenient truths, not that some haven’t tried. A Baghdad Bob-like moment occurred on May 30 when Shoigu reported incredible battlefield successes. “Russian troops continue to inflict effective fire on the enemy,” he wrote. He added that “196 HIMARS [rockets] were intercepted and destroyed, along with 16 HARM missiles and 29 Storm Shadow cruise missiles.”

Read more at The Hill

Ongoing Geointel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.


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The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.