The DEFCON Warning System™

The World’s Only Public Nuclear Threat Advisory System. Independent, real-time analysis of global nuclear tensions. Since 1984.

Korea

The Unthinkable War: Why Nations Choose Conflict Over Peace

Why would any country knowingly choose pain, destruction, and uncertainty over the safety of peace? It’s a haunting question that echoes from

The Erosion of Deterrence: Why Tactical Nuclear Weapons Are Becoming Thinkable Again

For decades after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the very notion of using nuclear weapons was considered unthinkable. A powerful nuclear taboo took hold

Would North Korea Actually Consider a Nuclear First Strike?

North Korea’s leadership has spent decades making blood-curdling threats. Now armed with nuclear warheads, they routinely warn of turning cities into ash.

From Ukraine to Taiwan: How Nuclear Blackmail Threatens Future Wars

As Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in 2022, one threat loomed over all battle plans – the spectre of mushroom clouds. Vladimir

The Hidden Bombs: What You Don’t See in Official Nuclear Counts

Nuclear weapons are often discussed in terms of official treaties and declared stockpiles. But lurking behind those official numbers are additional warheads

Who Can Launch in 15 Minutes? A Look at Nuclear Readiness Around the World

In a nuclear confrontation, minutes—not hours—determine outcomes. The size of a nuclear arsenal is only one part of the equation. Equally critical—and

Armageddon’s New Arms Race: The 2025 Nuclear Buildup

It has been over three decades since the Cold War ended, yet global nuclear arsenals are once again on the rise. Nuclear-armed

Nuclear Bomb Map Shows How US, Russian, North Korean Weapons Compare

here is currently a lot of talk about nuclear war as conflict escalates between the United States and its NATO allies with

Kim Jong-un’s Nuclear “Show and Tell” Should Lead to a Washington Rethink

The North Korean problem suddenly got a lot worse last month when Kim Jong-un unveiled a new uranium enrichment plant capable of

Did North Korea Really Test a Hypersonic Missile?

North Korea is working toward the deployment of hypersonic missiles that it claims could render South Korean and U.S. missile defenses useless.

A New Korean War Is Not Imminent. Accidental Escalation Might Be

The security situation in the Korean peninsula is going from bad to worse. Bellicose words dominate over words of peace. Changes in

Is North Korea Preparing to Start A War?

A recent 38 North article by Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker warns that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has likely decided to go