NATO realizing Russia may not stop with Ukraine
Hours after Russian missiles first struck Ukrainian cities on Feb. 24, German naval commander Terje Schmitt-Eliassen received notice to sail five warships
The DEFCON Warning System™
Ongoing GeoIntel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war. DEFCON Level assessment issued for public notification. Established 1984.
Reuters and ILH Staff
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Alert Fatigue & The Russia/Ukraine War
With the recent rise in global tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, everyday people have been inundated with news, pictures, videos, and
Putin’s Brutal War Shows the Dilemmas of Nuclear Deterrence
Even without having been used yet, nuclear weapons have shaped the war in Ukraine—and its outcomes will shape our views of nuclear
US doesn’t ‘seem prepared’ for possibility that Putin uses nuclear weapons: expert
The United States’ reactionary moves to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine suggest that it does not have an adequate plan in place to
The Perils of Emotional Arguments for Intervention in Ukraine
Ikrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told a special session of the U.S. Congress on Wednesday that “Russia has turned the Ukrainian sky into
DEFCON Warning System – Update 3-20-22
This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 9 P.M. UTC, Sunday, March 20th, 2022. Condition code is Yellow. DEFCON 3.
The Nuclear 9/11 in Our Future
In my report Surprise Attack: ICBMs and the Real Nuclear Threat (2020), I warned that U.S. strategic cultural aversion to “thinking about
Iran intensifies threats, heating up Middle East and Israel tensions – analysis
Iran’s regime looks to be moving toward a newly aggressive posture in the last week. This comes amid the Ukraine war as
Putin Still a Rational Man Who Won’t Use Nuclear Weapons, Top Experts Say
Despite the prevalence of opinions that Vladimir Putin has lost his mind, nuclear weapons experts continue to see the Russian president as
DEFCON Warning System – Update 3-13-22
This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 9 P.M. UTC, Sunday, March 13th, 2022. Condition code is Yellow. DEFCON 3.
Stalled and frustrated, Putin will likely ‘double down’ in the coming weeks, CIA says
CIA Director William Burns said Tuesday that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fallen far short of Vladimir Putin’s expectations and that he
“I’ve studied the possible trajectories of the Russia-Ukraine war. None are good”
Wars sometimes start easily, but it is a tenet of strategy that they are always unpredictable and extremely hard to end. Putin’s