In my report Surprise Attack: ICBMs and the Real Nuclear Threat (2020), I warned that U.S. strategic cultural aversion to “thinking about the unthinkable” and intelligence community biases would virtually guarantee failure to warn of an adversary potential or actual surprise nuclear attack.
The Intelligence Community “Worldwide Threat Assessment” to Congress on March 8, 2022, once again proves my case.
See No Evil
America’s top spy, Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence, testified to Congress on March 8 that there is no heightened nuclear threat from Russia, despite Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on February 27 self-deploying to a nuclear command post and publicly declaring a “high alert” and “special mode of combat duty” for Russia’s nuclear forces.
DNI Haines admits these actions by Putin are “extremely unusual” but reassured Congress: “We are watching very closely for movement of anything related to strategic forces,” such as the deployment of Russian mobile ICBMs, missile submarines, and strategic bombers.
According to DNI Haines: “We also have not observed force-wide nuclear posture changes that go beyond what we have seen in prior moments of heightened tensions during the last two decades.”
DNI Haines essentially agreed with other Biden Administration officials and their media allies that Putin’s nuclear threats are mere “bluster” and “nuclear saber rattling.” Haines: “He is effectively signaling that he is attempting to deter NATO from intervening in Ukraine.”
White House and Pentagon officials claim that there is no increased danger of nuclear war with Russia despite Putin’s nuclear threats, so U.S. nuclear forces remain at DEFCON 5—their lowest readiness level.
If they are wrong, then the U.S. nuclear posture would invite and reward a Russian surprise nuclear attack, adding a nuclear 9/11 or nuclear Pearl Harbor to the long and recent list of spectacular intelligence failures.
And they are wrong.
Read more at Real Clear Defense