US vs. Iran: What Might It Look Like?
As the United States continues to build up military assets in the Middle East and calls for strikes against Iran become more numerous from politicians in Washington, DC, the DEFCON Warning System has been discussing scenarios on how such a war could develop if it happens. This article is a summary of those discussions.
First, it is important to note that DWS officially views Iran as a de facto nuclear nation, meaning we believe they already have at least one nuclear weapon in their possession or are capable of obtaining one on very short notice. What they do NOT have is a reliable method of delivering a nuclear weapon against Israel or the United States. Iran does have missiles with the payload capacity for a nuclear warhead, but the odds are any such missile would be intercepted by one of numerous advanced ABM systems in the region. Attempting to deliver a nuclear weapon by airplane would be suicide for the pilot and it would never get near Israeli airspace. While Iran has a small submarine fleet, none of them are capable of launching a nuclear missile.
Even if Iran or one of its proxy groups managed to smuggle a nuclear warhead into Israel and successfully detonate it in Tel Aviv or some other strategic location, Iran would cease to exist as a nation in less than an hour by Israel’s nuclear retaliatory response. If Iran does indeed have the bomb, they still cannot compete with Israel’s nuclear arsenal, let alone the United States.
So, what does that mean for a war between the United States and Iran? There are three major factors to consider:
1: Will Israel join the US in a joint military strike against Iran?
As of the writing of this article, the United States has two Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and at least seven B-2 Spirit bombers deployed to the region, plus KC-135 refueling tankers, C-17s for support services, and other assets. This is more firepower than is needed to strike the Houthi rebels in Yemen, which has been the scenario Washington, DC has been painting, but a single CSG could handle that operation by itself. So it is our assessment that a much bigger operation is in the works. Iran is the most logical target.
If the United States acts alone in a massive military strike against Iran, Israel has some plausible deniability. That being said, Iran does not have the capability to strike back directly at the United States, so they might attempt to retaliate by attacking Israel instead. This might provoke Israel into entering the war, which increases the chances of an even larger regional war in the Middle East.
If Israel does participate with the US in a joint military strike against Iran, Iran will almost certainly attempt to retaliate against Israel, leading to the same scenario described above, just at a faster pace.
Either way, the United States would be risking drawing Israel and other Middle East countries into a much larger conflict, which would remain conventional at first, but could turn nuclear at some point in the future depending on how it evolves. Both Israel and the United States have the capability to use nuclear weapons against Iran with little fear of nuclear retaliation. Russia might be an Iranian ally, but it is unlikely they will risk a nuclear war with the US by conducting a retaliatory nuclear strike on Iran’s behalf. Still, even the use of a single nuclear weapon in combat would have disastrous repercussions on the global economy and might even cause another nuclear power to launch out of panic.
2: Will other countries in the region get involved?
Israel has had no shortage of military conflicts with Arab nations in the Middle East since they announced their independence in 1948. Four major conflicts have occurred since that time involving Israel and Arab countries that were united against them. Would any of those same countries support Iran in a fifth major conflict against Israel?
Lebanon is certainly no fan of Israel at the moment due to the recent incursions by the IDF into Lebanese territory during their attacks on Hezbollah, a military group supported by Iran and seen by many as a terrorist organization.
Israel’s operations in Syria have made them no friends there either. Iraq might offer to support Iran, but they are no longer the military power in the Middle East that they used to be, so such support would probably be limited to allowing their airspace and territory to be used by Iran to launch attacks against Israel.
Jordan shares a very long border with Israel and has lost territory to Israel in previous wars. The two countries signed a peace treaty in 1994, but diplomatic relations have deteriorated over the past five years. If Jordan sees an opportunity to reclaim lost territory, they might participate in a regional war against Israel. However, much like Iraq, Jordan’s military power in the region has been greatly reduced in the 21st century. By itself, Jordan presents no real threat to Israel, but they might feel emboldened if another alliance of Arab countries joins together against Israel.
Egypt is a wild card in the equation. While they have historically fought in wars against Israel, the two countries are now considered allies, with close economic ties, a shared border, and common mutual interests in the region. However, Egypt’s current government is not as friendly to Israel as it was prior to the “Arab Spring” in 2011. Joining the other Arab countries in the region as they have in the past would present Israel with a three-front war, making it a very difficult war for them to fight, but it would also expose Egypt to direct attacks on their territory by Israel.
3: Will other nuclear powers get involved?
Despite our assessment of Iran being a de facto nuclear-armed nation, Israel is currently the only actual recognized nuclear power in the Middle East. As discussed previously, even if Iran does have nuclear weapons, they will not be as advanced or as numerous as Israel’s, and they have no reliable delivery system with which to hit Israel. Iran might get off a lucky nuclear shot or two, but it would be suicide against Israel’s nuclear arsenal. So, let’s look at other nuclear powers:
United States – During President Trump’s first term, comments were made that resulted in the perception that he might be more open to the use of nuclear weapons than some of his predecessors. With Donald Trump again being the Commander-in-Chief during this current crisis, the question must be asked – is he willing to use nuclear weapons against Iran, or does he just want Iran to think that he’s willing to do so? DWS has no real consensus on this, but we must acknowledge the possibility exists.
Russia – President Putin has his hands full with the war in Ukraine, and would be unlikely to use nuclear weapons against either Israel or the United States to defend Iran. Putin knows this would result in a global nuclear exchange, and is probably unwilling to risk that. We also know that, unlike President Biden, President Trump views President Putin as an equal and potential ally to the United States. It is possible some back-door diplomacy has already occurred regarding Ukraine and Iran that removes Russia from the nuclear equation. We want to make it clear that we have no evidence to support this theory; it is merely one of the potential scenarios we have discussed.
China – The People’s Republic of China, much like Russia, is highly unlikely to get involved in a nuclear exchange with Israel or the United States over Iran, although we do think it possible they might take advantage of the chaos arising from a regional Middle East War and perhaps use it to make a move on Taiwan. However, that is yet another theory and would be a subject for a different article.
Great Britain/France – Both Great Britain and France maintain small nuclear arsenals, primarily as part of NATO’s nuclear deterrence against Russia. If Russia does not get strategically involved in a Middle East War, it is unlikely either Great Britain or France would.
North Korea – The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is a declared and confirmed nuclear power. It is the personal opinion of this author that when the original Iran nuclear agreement was reached in 2015 under President Obama, Iran shipped its nuclear program to North Korea where it could continue while still appearing to be compliant with the agreement. While there is no direct evidence for this either, if it is true, Iran and North Korea have a common nuclear connection that might result in Kim Jong Un siding with Iran in a Middle East War. However, would they use their nuclear weapons? Unlikely. As much as Kim likes to make nuclear threats, his small nuclear arsenal’s primary purpose is to serve as a deterrent against military action from South Korea and the United States. He is unlikely to sacrifice any part of that deterrent for Iran.
That being said, it is theoretically possible that if Iran is actually in possession of a nuclear weapon, it could have been built in North Korea before being shipped to Iran. If that theory is true, might Kim Jong Un ship additional warheads to Iran for their war effort? Kim’s unpredictable nature makes this question almost impossible to answer. However, we believe North Korea would not be an active participant in any nuclear warfare between Iran, Israel, or the United States as long as North Korea itself is not threatened.
India – India is an ally of Israel, but not a military ally. India’s very small nuclear arsenal is almost entirely designed as a deterrent against aggression from Pakistan. It is unlikely India would use any of their nuclear weapons to defend Israel, with one possible exception: Pakistan using their nuclear weapons in the Middle East. See below.
Pakistan – Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is similar to India’s, both in quantity and purpose. Their nuclear weapons are intended for use against Indian targets. That being said, Pakistan is a Muslim country that has never recognized Israel as a sovereign state and supports the Palestinians in their conflict with Israel. No diplomatic ties have ever been established between the two countries. However, Pakistan and Iran are close diplomatic partners. Therefore, if any other nuclear power were to use their weapons against Israel in a Middle East War, the most likely candidate is Pakistan.
That being said, we still consider that a very low probability. Pakistan maintains its nuclear arsenal primarily as a deterrent against India. Using any of their weapons against another country would result in a distinct nuclear disadvantage in a war with India, which they are unlikely to risk on behalf of Iran.
Summary
So, what is the most likely scenario? This is very difficult to predict, largely due to the fact that, unlike the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union, which was primarily ideological in nature, the Middle East situation also has a theological component. This adds an additional level of complexity to the equation. However, the most likely scenario is a regional Middle East war with multiple actors which will remain conventional in nature at first, but will gradually increase the likelihood of the combat use of nuclear weapons the longer it drags on.
We do not want to underestimate the danger a large-scale war in the Middle East would present not only to that region but also to the rest of the world. Even if such a conflict remains conventional and no nuclear weapons are used in combat, it would have a negative impact on the global economy and further destabilize an international geopolitical situation that is already on shaky ground. And if it does go nuclear, the devastation would be on a scale not seen since World War II. The atomic bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were mere firecrackers compared to the destructive power of modern nuclear weapons. Cities would be erased from the map and the global economy would collapse.
As the computer named Joshua stated so simply in the movie War Games, “The only winning move is not to play.” The best possible solution will be diplomatic in nature and will decrease the chance of a regional Middle East war, not increase it. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail and this crisis will pass as a minor historical footnote. As always, DWS urges citizens to stay informed and use this time to prepare for war while praying for peace.
