The DEFCON Warning System™

Ongoing GeoIntel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.  DEFCON Level assessment issued for public notification.  Established 1984.

How Close Is Iran to the Bomb?

If Iran ever builds a nuclear bomb, then we’ll be living in a drastically more dangerous world. For more than two decades, avoiding that reality has motivated American foreign policy, with decidedly mixed results. Now, recent activities at a secretive office inside Tehran’s Ministry of Defense is stoking fears that we’re far closer to that day than many experts understand.

Two separate documents—about a half dozen pages written in Farsi—obtained by The Free Press reveal how Iran’s parliament, or Majlis, is significantly expanding the funding and military pursuits of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its Farsi language–based acronym, SPND. The pages of legislation, passed this summer, were downloaded from the parliament’s website, but are being detailed for the first time in the Western press.

While the new Iranian legislation doesn’t specifically mention nuclear bomb development, it clearly states that SPND’s mandate is to produce advanced and nonconventional weapons with no civilian oversight. The legislation, which The Free Press translated, states that “this organization focuses on managing and acquiring innovative, emerging, groundbreaking, high-risk, and superior technologies in response to new and emerging threats.” 

The law essentially shields Iran’s defense department from any domestic oversight—while giving it a seemingly unlimited budget, though no specific numbers were given. When Iran’s parliament published the legislation on its website in May, it offered the most detailed accounting yet of SPND’s structure, which was largely kept secret.

The Iranian law decrees that SPND reports directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is also the chief commander of Iran’s armed forces. It says the organization “has an independent legal [status] and operates as a government institution with financial, transactional, and administrative independence.” 

Ali Akbar Salehi, a former foreign minister and ex-head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, bluntly told Iranian state television in February that his country already has all the necessary components to build a bomb. “We have all the thresholds of nuclear science and technology,” Salehi said in response to a question about Iran’s nuclear capabilities. “I’ll give you an example: What does a car want? It wants a chassis, an engine, a steering wheel, and a gearbox. You tell me, did you make the gearbox? I say yes. Did you make the engine? Yes, but each one is for its own purpose.”

Read more at The Free Press

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© 2024 The DEFCON Warning System. Established 1984.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.