“If the U.S. doesn’t hit the brakes and continues to barrel down the wrong track,” China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang said on March 7, “no amount of guardrails can prevent the carriage from derailing and crashing, and there will surely be conflict and confrontation.” He also spoke of “catastrophic consequences.”
The unusually pointed warning followed that of Chinese ruler Xi Jinping of the day before. “Western countries, led by the U.S., are implementing all-round containment, encirclement, and suppression against us,” he told the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Beijing.
These comments suggest a marked deterioration in relations between Washington and Beijing. What is happening?
“We have to not rule out the stratagem of empty fortress,” tweeted City University of New York’s Ming Xia, one of America’s most astute China watchers, on March 8.
Xia was referring to a tactic employed many times in ancient Chinese history. Perhaps the most famous “empty fortress” tale comes from the Three Kingdoms period when military strategist Kung Ming had to figure out how to repel an invader, Sima Yi, with few troops. Kung appeared on his fortress wall in a confident pose, which convinced Yi to retreat.
In all probability, Xi and Qin were employing this ancient tactic, attempting to intimidate the Biden administration into not enforcing or adopting measures they do not like.
The Hudson Institute’s Miles Yu, another leading China watcher, reminds Americans that the Communist Party is using a time-worn tactic of “Using Confrontation to Promote Cooperation.” “It’s always in the CCP’s playbook,” Yu points out.
For many reasons, the Chinese fortress is empty at this moment. Among other difficulties, the country’s economy is stumbling, debt defaults are continuing, the currency is weakening, food shortages are worsening, localities are running short of cash, and diseases continue to afflict the population. Moreover, the Chinese people are unhappy. Since late October, they have taken to the streets in demonstrations over varied complaints. Some protestors have even demanded the removal of Xi Jinping and the Communist Party.
