DEFCON Warning System – Update 10/1/20

This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 2 P.M., Thursday, October 1st, 2020. Condition code is Green. DEFCON 5.

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.

We continue to monitor the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but at this time it remains a regional war between two non-nuclear powers and we do not see it impacting the global nuclear threat level in the near future.  At this time, Russia and the United States are not involving themselves in this conflict despite being allies to each.  The United States, however, has flown bombers within 20 miles of Crimea, upsetting Russia.

The United States has warned that China plans to double its nuclear stockpile in the next decade including missiles that can reach the United States.   Evidence is mounting that China is developing an air leg for a nuclear triad, meaning that China will have the ability to deliver nuclear weapons by missile, sub, and air.  China has also joined in military exercises with Russia.

In other Chinese developments, China has said that it no longer recognizes the median line in the Taiwan Strait and that it will go to war if U.S. troops return to Taiwan.  Additionally, China is stepping up rehearsals for an attack on Taiwan.

Iran’s stockpile of uranium is over ten times the limit set by the Iran nuclear deal and continues to grow, with Iran saying that over 1,000 centrifuges are now active at Fordo.  Israel says it has not ruled out a pre-emptive strike against Iran.  Meanwhile, Bahrain has agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack. If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it. Your readings will vary. Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.

For immediate updates, go to Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter and Parler feed DEFCONWSAlerts. You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list. Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays. The next scheduled update is 2 P.M. Pacific Time, November 1st, 2020. Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.

This concludes this update of the DEFCON Warning System.

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