Recent orbital activity involving United States and Chinese satellites has underscored the increasing strategic competition taking place in Earth orbit. Defence analysts have observed multiple instances of satellites from both nations conducting deliberate close-proximity manoeuvres — behaviour that departs from traditional, predictable satellite operations and introduces new variables into the global security environment.
These manoeuvres, sometimes described in technical and defence reporting as “dogfighting,” involve satellites actively altering their speed and position to approach, observe, and track other spacecraft over extended periods. While such activity does not involve weapons deployment, it reflects an evolution in how space assets are used and signals the growing importance of orbital operations in modern military strategy.
What Has Been Observed
In recent months, satellites operated by the United States and the People’s Republic of China have demonstrated the ability to manoeuvre with precision near other spacecraft in both geostationary and lower Earth orbits. Rather than remaining on fixed, fuel-conserving trajectories, these satellites have adjusted their orbits to maintain proximity to foreign satellites for observation and inspection.
U.S. space authorities have acknowledged operating satellites designed to monitor activity in orbit, including spacecraft capable of observing and characterising other satellites. China, for its part, has launched multiple experimental and intelligence satellites that demonstrate similar manoeuvring capabilities. These activities appear to be conducted in peacetime and are consistent with broader trends in space situational awareness and counter-space readiness.
Strategic Context
Space has become a critical domain for military operations, supporting communications, navigation, intelligence collection, and early warning. For nuclear-armed states, satellites play a foundational role in nuclear command, control, and communications systems, as well as in missile-launch detection and verification.
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies. However, it does not prohibit military use of space, nor does it restrict reconnaissance, intelligence collection, or manoeuvrable satellite operations. As a result, space has increasingly become an arena of strategic competition rather than a purely civilian or scientific environment.
Close-proximity operations sit at the intersection of intelligence gathering and strategic signalling. While such manoeuvres may be intended to observe or characterise foreign satellites, they can also be interpreted as preparatory actions for potential interference during a future conflict.
Implications for Stability and Risk
From a nuclear-stability perspective, these developments are significant not because they represent weapons deployment in space, but because they interact with systems that support nuclear deterrence and crisis management.
Satellites that support early warning, secure communications, and strategic surveillance are integral to decision-making during periods of heightened tension. Any perceived threat to these systems — whether real or misinterpreted — can increase uncertainty and compress decision timelines during a crisis.
Additionally, close-proximity manoeuvres carry inherent physical risks. Orbital collisions, even accidental ones, can generate debris that persists for years or decades. Such debris fields can threaten unrelated civilian and military satellites alike, including those that support global communications and nuclear-related infrastructure.
Broader Trends in Space Militarisation
The observed activity reflects a broader shift away from static satellite deployments toward dynamic, manoeuvrable spacecraft capable of interacting with their environment. This trend is not limited to the United States and China; other spacefaring nations, including Russia, have demonstrated interest in similar capabilities.
Anti-satellite technologies — both kinetic and non-kinetic — have already shown how actions in space can have long-lasting consequences. Past tests have created debris clouds that continue to endanger spacecraft long after the original event. While the recent manoeuvres do not involve weapon use, they occur within a strategic context shaped by these precedents.
Assessment
The current satellite manoeuvres do not indicate the deployment of nuclear weapons in space, nor do they represent an immediate escalation toward armed conflict. However, they do illustrate how space operations are becoming more complex, more contested, and more closely tied to terrestrial military doctrines.
As reliance on space-based systems continues to grow, the intersection between orbital activity and nuclear stability becomes increasingly relevant. Actions taken in space — even those intended for observation or signalling — can influence perceptions, risk calculations, and escalation dynamics during periods of geopolitical stress.
The DEFCON Warning System will continue to monitor developments in space operations insofar as they intersect with nuclear command systems, early-warning infrastructure, and long-term strategic stability.
