Satellite imagery continues to confirm that China is pressing ahead with the construction and development of new missile silo fields across several regions of the country, underscoring Beijing’s ongoing modernisation and expansion of its nuclear deterrent. Analysts have identified multiple new silo complexes in Gansu, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, each appearing capable of housing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
While the exact number of new silos remains a matter of assessment, intelligence suggests that China could be constructing several hundred, potentially increasing the number of available ICBM launch sites by a significant margin. This development marks a major shift from China’s historically modest land-based nuclear posture, which for decades relied primarily on a small number of mobile missile systems.
Beijing maintains that its nuclear arsenal remains minimal and oriented toward deterrence rather than parity with the United States or Russia. However, the construction of fixed silos—traditionally associated with larger and more established nuclear powers—indicates a strategic evolution. The expansion is accompanied by improvements in missile technology, such as the solid-fuel DF-41, which is capable of carrying multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles and reaching intercontinental ranges.
The shift toward a mixed force structure of mobile and silo-based ICBMs may serve several purposes. Fixed silos can act as decoys, complicating adversary targeting calculations and enhancing the survivability of the overall force. At the same time, they allow for quicker launch readiness compared to mobile systems, offering a potential response option should China perceive a threat to its deterrent credibility.
U.S. and allied intelligence agencies have taken note of the build-up, with senior officials acknowledging that China’s nuclear arsenal is growing at a faster pace than previously projected. Estimates vary, but the Pentagon has suggested that China may possess over 1,000 nuclear warheads by the mid-2030s if current trends continue.
Beijing has not publicly confirmed details of the silo expansion, and Chinese state media has largely avoided discussion of the subject. Official statements continue to frame China’s nuclear policy within its longstanding “no first use” doctrine, although the scale of construction has prompted debate among outside observers regarding future intentions and possible doctrinal adjustments.
For now, China’s missile silo expansion represents one of the most significant developments in the global nuclear landscape in recent years. It reflects not only an increase in capability but also a visible assertion of China’s growing role in strategic deterrence on the world stage.
