The DEFCON Warning System™

Ongoing GeoIntel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.  DEFCON Level assessment issued for public notification.  Established 1984.

Nuclear War Threat Assessment – 5/1/24 – The DEFCON Warning System

This is the DEFCON Warning System.  Alert status for 5 P.M. UTC, Wednesday, May 1st, 2024.  Condition code is Green.  DEFCON 5.

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.

Israel’s attack on Iranian soil has sent shockwaves through Iran, exposing Iran’s inability to defend against an Israeli attack.  This has caused Iran to re-evaluate its position, especially in light of the fact that Iran has wanted to avoid a direct war with Israel, preferring to work through proxies.  Iran’s isolation has also been exposed when its attack on Israel was repelled not only by Western forces, but also by Middle Eastern nations.  Iran’s plan for a multi-nation coalition against Israel is not feasible at this time, and so an overwhelming attack that would propel Israel to use nuclear weapons is extremely unlikely for now.  It is also assessed that, if Iran does possess a nuclear weapon, it is not in the position to use one given the lack of support the country has.

Russia says it believes NATO has returned to a Cold War mentality.  Poland has stated that it is willing to host nuclear weapons while Russia has moved its Iskander-M tactical nuclear missile systems to the border with Finland.  The United States says that it has provided Ukraine with a long-range Army Tactical Missile System that can reach deep into Russian-occupied areas.  Russia has vetoed a U.N. resolution calling on all nations to prevent a dangerous nuclear arms race in outer space.  In another move of instability, Russia hints that it could annex Georgia territory.

North Korea claims a successful launch of a new IRBM tipped with a hypersonic warhead.  Continuing in Asia, the Philippines says it is determined to assert its sovereign rights in the South China Sea.  The United States has a mutual defence treaty with the Philippines and said it would protect its ally if it came under attack anywhere in the South China Sea, though China continues to attack Philippine vessels with impunity.  

India says it will cross the border into Pakistan to pursue terrorists who commit acts in Indian territory.

The International Atomic Energy Agency says that Iran has tripled its uranium enrichment level to 60 percent and that Iran has no credible civilian justification for enrichment up to 60 percent.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984.  It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch.  The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning.  At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.  If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it.  Your readings will vary.  Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.

For immediate updates, go to www.defconwarningsystem.com.  Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed DEFCONWSAlerts.  You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list.  Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays.  The next scheduled update is 9 P.M. UTC, June 2nd, 2024.  Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.

This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.

Ongoing Geointel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.

© 2024 The DEFCON Warning System. Established 1984.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.