The DEFCON Warning System™

Ongoing GeoIntel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.  DEFCON Level assessment issued for public notification.  Established 1984.

Nuclear War Threat Assessment – 4/16/24

This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 7 P.M. UTC, Tuesday, April 16th, 2024.  Condition code is Blue.  DEFCON 4.

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time, however there are events occurring in the world theatre which require closer monitoring.

Iran has attacked Israel from Iran’s own soil in retaliation for an Israeli attack on an Iranian embassy.  Both Jordon and Saudi Arabia, as well as the United States and the United Kingdom, have assisted in defending against the attack.  Iran’s assault was mostly ineffective with virtually all drones either shot down or failed.

Israel has vowed a counterstrike, and the current consensus is that the counterstrike will be against Iranian assets on Iranian soil.  If this is true, this could lead to a series of escalations between the two countries, devolving into a full-blown war between Israel — which is generally believed to be a nuclear-armed State — and Iran — which is suspected to be working on nuclear weapons or may even have some ready to deploy.

It should be noted that Israel it attempting to fashion its response to avoid escalation, though Iran is not known to accept an attack without responding.

It is also possible that Israel may elect to attack Iranian targets not on Iran soil, which would be less of a provocation for a counterattack.

Due to the volatility of the situation, and due to the potential for uncontrolled escalation, The DEFCON Warning System advises the public to remain alert to the ongoing situation in the Middle East.  Events there can spiral out of control quickly.

Note that the DEFCON Warning System does not foresee a hot war evolving out of the current conflict.  This alert is merely an advisory precaution.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984.  It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch.  The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning.  At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.  If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it.  Your readings will vary.  Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.

For immediate updates, go to www.defconwarningsystem.com.  Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed DEFCONWSAlerts.  You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list.  Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays.  The next scheduled update is 9 P.M. UTC, May 7th, 2024.  Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.

This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.

Ongoing Geointel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.

© 2024 The DEFCON Warning System. Established 1984.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.