North Korea experts – by nature, a cautious group who seek to avoid sowing panic – have been left reeling by two of their own.
Last week, the two eminent analysts dropped a bomb – so to speak – in stating their belief that the pariah state’s leader is preparing for war.
Kim Jong Un has scrapped the bedrock goal of reconciling and re-uniting with South Korea, they said. Instead, he’s presenting the North and South as two independent states at war with each other.
“We believe, that like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war,” wrote Robert L Carlin, a former CIA analyst and Siegfried S Hecker, a nuclear scientist who’s visited the North several times, in an article on specialist site 38 North.
Such a pronouncement set off alarm bells in Washington and Seoul, and a massive debate in North Korea watching circles.
Most analysts, however, disagree with the war theory; the BBC spoke to seven experts across Asia, Europe and North America – none of whom supported the idea.
“Risking his entire regime on a potentially cataclysmic conflict is not on-brand for the North Koreans. They have proven to be ruthlessly Machiavellian,” says Christopher Green, a Korea watcher from Crisis Group based in the Netherlands.
He and others note the North often acts out to bring Western powers to the table for dialogue; and there are political pressures at home too.
But they do agree that Mr Kim’s increased bluster can’t be ignored and his regime has grown more dangerous.
While most argue war may still be unlikely, some fear a more limited attack could yet be on the cards.
Close watchers of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un are used to his nuclear threats, but some say the latest messages from Pyongyang are of a different nature.
