DEFCON Warning System – Update 1/11/22

This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 2 P.M., Tuesday, January 11th, 2022.  Condition code is Blue.  DEFCON 4.

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time, however there are events occurring in the world theatre which require closer monitoring.


We continue to monitor the crisis in Eastern Europe very closely.

Russia has stated it will not rule out deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus if Ukraine is accepted in NATO or if NATO deploys additional weaponry in member states along the Russian border.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has assured Russia that they will agree to host Russian nuclear weapons on Belarus territory.

While Russia and NATO are currently engaging in diplomatic talks to resolve the crisis, there are demands being made by Russia that NATO will simply not accept, including guarantees that NATO will not allow Ukraine into the alliance.  Russia has threatened to walk out of the talks if NATO does not agree to prohibit Ukraine and Georgia from becoming members.

The United States has stated that allies will act “decisively” should Russia further invade Ukraine, but there are mixed signals between the allied countries on what those actions will entail.  Russia is refusing to remove troops from Ukraine’s border until its demands are met by NATO.

Nuclear war was brought up between Russia and the United States during a phone call between Presidents Biden and Putin.  We find it concerning that this subject was even mentioned, meaning someone is seeing the possibility of a military conflict.

A crisis involving civil unrest in Kazakhstan – a former Soviet country and a well-established supporter of Russia and President Putin – that has complicated the matter of Ukraine for Russia.  Russian airborne troops have been deployed to Kazakhstan to assist with the crisis, which may delay or alter existing Russian plans for Ukraine.


U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Saudi Arabia is now actively manufacturing its own ballistic missiles with the assistance of China. This will present a complication to the Biden’s administration’s efforts to deter Iran’s nuclear weapons program, as well as potentially change the balance of power in the region.

Iran has stated it will not enrich uranium above 60 percent purity, a level of purity just a step below that required for the production of nuclear weapons. Iran has claimed it has the capability to enrich uranium up to 90% purity, but is not doing so in hopes of reviving the JCPOA – also referred to as the Iran Nuclear Deal – in return for the lifting of sanctions against Tehran.


The United States and Japan have drafted a joint operation plan in case of a “Taiwan emergency.” This plan would involve the establishment of temporary military bases by the US Marine Corp on small Japanese islands near Taiwan.

Late last year China threatened Japan with the use of nuclear weapons should Japan interfere with any military operations against Taiwan. China has stated they will monitor this recent development closely.

U.S. intelligence reports that China is continuing to expand its nuclear arsenal, which China has denied, stating that it would continue to “modernize” it’s nuclear arsenal as long as Russia and the United States continue to maintain large stockpiles of nuclear weapons. China has stated that they will agree to reduce the number of nuclear warheads if Russia and the United States “drastically” reduce their own stockpiles.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984.  It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch.  The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning.  At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.  If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it.  Your readings will vary.  Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.

For immediate updates, go to  Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed DEFCONWS Alerts.  You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list.  Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays.  The next scheduled update is 2 P.M. Pacific Time, February 1st, 2022.  Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.

This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.

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