DEFCON Warning System – Update 12/20/21

This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 2 P.M., Monday, December 20th, 2021.  Condition code is Blue.  DEFCON 4.

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time, however there are events occurring in the world theatre which require closer monitoring.

Russia has increased the threats it has made regarding the situation in Ukraine, going so far as to say it is willing to accept “great difficulty” and “great economic costs” to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and that it is to begin “creating counter-threats” should NATO not accept Russian proposals of security guarantees.  NATO has rejected the demands made by Russia, but it also says it is going to meet to discuss them.

Some analysts believe that Russia is making these threats as a diplomatic move to make NATO capitulate in the former Soviet Union sphere.  Other analysts have said that Russia is gearing up for war.

The DEFCON Warning System has expressed great concern that both sides are moving into intractable positions that will leave no option but war.  The next couple weeks should reveal more information.

In the meantime, Russia has successfully tested an anti-satellite weapon, while Russia and China have signed a roadmap for closer military cooperation. Additionally, Russia is to deploy hypersonic missiles capable of nine times the speed of sound and has deployed a Bastion coastal defense system at new military facility in disputed Kuril Islands.

Russia has also said it will deploy intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe if NATO does the same.  NATO says it has no plans to deploy new missiles in Europe and that any deployment would be conventional only.  Meanwhile, NATO has rejected a Russian offer to talk about medium range missiles.

The United States, for its part, says it will reactivate a European theater artillery command that had been defunct for the past three decades.  Additionally, Vice Chief of Space operations of the U.S. Space Force says the United States is behind Russia and China when it comes to hypersonic technology.  Meanwhile, the United States has successfully tested a laser weapon.

China states it will attack U.S. forces that come to aid Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.  The United States Department of Defense says that China is expanding its nuclear weapon capabilities much faster than predicted.  Additionally, China now boasts the world’s largest navy.  Meanwhile, Russia and China have conducted a joint patrol over Sea of Japan. China is planning to establish permanent base in Equatorial Guinea, placing it close to the United States.

The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Iran has increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, with totals of 113.8 kg (251 lbs) enriched to 20 percent, up from 84.3 (186 lbs) in September, and 17.7 kg (39 lbs) enriched up to 60%, up from 10 kg (22 lbs). 

Meanwhile, international talks regarding Iran’s nuclear programme have restarted and the head of the CIA says United States does not have evidence that Iran is weaponizing its nuclear programme.  However, Iran has refused to allow the IAEA to see images from cameras placed in nuclear facility near Karaj until sanctions are lifted.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984.  It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch.  The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning.  At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.  If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it.  Your readings will vary.  Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.

For immediate updates, go to Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed DEFCONWS Alerts. You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list. Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays. The next scheduled update is 2 P.M. Pacific Time, January 10th, 2021. Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.

This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.

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