The DEFCON Warning System

Ongoing Geointel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war. Established 1984

What To Expect From A Joe Biden Presidency

As the United States inaugurates its new President, citizens are urged to examine the man under the new light he is exposed to.

The DEFCON Warning System, as is the case for every U.S. leader, as made its own analysis of Joe Biden.  Normally, we keep these analyses internal.  This time, however, we are releasing our analysis to the public so you can see what we are thinking as well as add these to your own thoughts.  The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning.

The difficulty with these types of analysis is that it is impossible to not come across as political.  No matter what we say, someone will take it as either an affront to their politician, or confirmation of their own bias.  This document is not intended to endorse or repudiate any person or policy.  This is simply our analysis of what we see potentially happening based on what we know of history and of the person we are examining.

Dr. Phil has often said that the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour.  However, for a President, that is not necessarily true.  There is a big difference, a frightening difference, when you sit in that chair in the Oval Office, and it can make you re-think things.  And we have often seen that promises made on the campaign trail do not always materialize when someone wins the election.

Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, is the oldest President, taking office at the age of 78.  At that age, it isn’t improbable that he will not survive his first term.  In fact, even Biden probably does not believe he will live out his first term.  Biden aides and advisors have stated ““If Biden is elected, he’s going to be 82 years old in four years and he won’t be running for re-election.”  Another: “He’s going into this thinking, ‘I want to find a running mate I can turn things over to after four years but if that’s not possible or doesn’t happen then I’ll run for re-election.’ But he’s not going to publicly make a one term pledge.”  Biden also stated on the campaign trail that this will be a “Harris Presidency,” though that could be attributed to a slip of the tongue.

Biden’s mortality is going to be foremost in his mind.  He will want to make sure he has a legacy in place before he must or is forced to leave office.  With both the White House and Congress in his hands, he has the ability to make much of what he wants to happen.  For two years, at least.  The current party in power (the Democrat Party) has not done well in many mid-terms, and even in this recent election actually lost seats in the House.  This could propel him to take even more chances while he has firm control of the government.

We are not going to see a return of the Obama years.  While Biden served as Obama’s Vice President, that does not necessarily mean that Biden agreed with everything Obama did.   There will be no “Apology Tour,” no bashing of the United States, and certainly no First Lady who announces that she was never proud of her country before her husband got elected.  And, despite U.S. allies’ hopes otherwise, the U.S. will not take second-seat to other countries.  Biden will still seek to be Number One on the world stage.

Biden is one of the last of the “Greatest Generation”, those who were around for WWII, though born near the end of it, so maybe the term doesn’t appropriately apply to him.  But he certainly was exposed to the upbringing from that era.  But this also puts him in his formative 20’s during the Flower Power 60’s and the radicalization of that time.

Due to his age, Biden will have hardened his beliefs and attitudes.  What he carries with him now is unlikely to change.  This can be a disadvantage as he deals with others, especially foreign entities.  He will be much harder to convince to compromise, to see things as others see them.  While he does have a great deal of political experience, the age thing is going to work against him.  Again, though, that Big Chair does have a way of getting people to see things in a different way.

Another problem Biden has working against him is his racism.  He has certain attitudes about different races, and that is going to hinder him.  While again he is no Obama, and he doesn’t hate Israel, he does have certain attitudes about races.  One can never forget (or some people conveniently forget) that most of his racist statements have been aimed at Blacks.  Most of them anyway.  “Poor kids just as bright as white kids” and “You can’t go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent” just to pick out a couple.  This racism will carry over to his dealing with Israel, Korea, China, and Iran.

Biden is not an isolationist.  Look for the United States to return to intervention on a much larger scale than has been the last four years.  This has been typical of both political parties, but for different philosophical reasons.  The end result, however, is always the same. The last four years under Biden’s predecessor, however, saw a reduction in that.  That reduction is likely to end as his political party will want to be much more involved in the world.

Biden will probably continue a hard line with North Korea.  This is in line with Obama’s presidency and Trump’s.  North Korea is celebrating a Biden victory, believing that Biden will move away from the hard-line policies enacted by the previous President.  They are dreaming.  Under Obama, we can perilously close to nuclear war with North Korea, but it was Obama that blinked in the end.  Biden isn’t looking for revenge, but we will continue to see hard line policies with that country.  North Korea, on the other hand, doesn’t like Biden, Biden having slurred the good name of North Korea’s leader.  Nevertheless, they see Biden as a “useful idiot,” and will work to see if he can be a pushover.  Maybe another nuclear test is coming.  Certainly more missile launches.

Look for Iran appeasement.  In fact, that has already started, and Iran is salivating.  Iran is looking for not only a return to the “Nuclear deal,” but is looking for even better terms.  Additionally, a bill working its way through Iran’s parliament calls for the destruction of Israel by 2041 and for additional military resistance to the U.S. presence in the Middle East.  Iran sees Biden’s victory as a victory for Iran’s resistance to U.S. pressure.

China, as well, sees Biden as someone they can work with.  Biden doesn’t see China as an adversary.  As far as China goes, he may sell America’s soul for cheap products.  As far as South China Sea goes, it really could go either way.  Biden has talked tough about that region, but it is to be seen if he is going to follow through, especially with Taiwan on the table.  How far is Biden willing to bend for China?  China is someone he sees as “They’re not bad folks, folks.  But guess what?  They’re not competition for us.”

Israel is going to be a problem.  There won’t be a complete abandonment, but Israel has lost a friend and they know it.  Israel may feel more isolated and more prone to react.  There is, however, only so much they can do, reliant as they are on American military purchases and ultimately someone who may back them up should war come.

As far as Russia, Biden is going to go old school.  Despite any diplomatic overtures, he won’t trust them.  He’s too old to change that.  But he may agree to unfavourable agreements, and that influence from forces trying to pull him even further Left.

The United States under Biden is going to be much more relaxed when it comes to immigration, and undocumented people will resume inflow into the U.S.  This was never abated under the previous administration, but Biden was quite open about allowing border crossings without proper vetting, which can allow enemy agents to slip in undetected.

One other problem Biden faces is the mounting U.S. debt.  It is unsustainable and puts the U.S. in a very bad position, indebted to hostile countries.  And his party wants to drive the debt up even more with nothing now to stop them.

Bottom line: Biden is not long for the world, hardened in his attitudes, and will continue policies that place the U.S. is a bad position, including foreign intervention.  The possibility of the United States getting into a conflict are higher under a Joe Biden Presidency than they have been during the last four years.

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Ongoing Geointel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.

© 2023 The DEFCON Warning System. Established 1984.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.