The DEFCON Warning System™

The World’s Only Public Nuclear Threat Advisory System. Independent, real-time analysis of global nuclear tensions. Since 1984.

DEFCON 4 - Blue

DEFCON 4/Blue Public Service Announcement — June 13, 2025 (UTC−5)

Condition code is Blue: DEFCON 4.  There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time, however there are events occurring in the world theatre which require closer monitoring.

Situation Summary:

  • On June 12, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—primarily its enrichment facility at Natanz, ballistic missile development sites, and senior nuclear scientists—citing an “imminent” nuclear weapons threat.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed the operation will continue “for as many days as it takes”.
  • Iran has reportedly retaliated with a missile strike on at least one military base in Iraq, though this remains unverified at the time this statement has been published.

🛡 Defender Advisories

  1. U.S. Military Preparedness
    • American embassies and personnel in Iraq and the broader Middle East are on heightened alert. Evacuations are underway for non-essential staff, and military families are being offered voluntary departure.
  2. Regional Instability
    • Iran has threatened retaliation not only against Israel but also U.S. forces, warning that American bases in the region are “within our reach”.
    • Escalation fears have rattled global markets—oil prices have surged (~5–8%), grain and gold prices spiked, and U.S. stock futures dropped.

⚠ Public Guidance

For civilians in the Middle East:

  • Avoid military bases, airports, major infrastructure, and commercial flight paths.
  • Follow local alert systems—sirens, official social media, and broadcasts—for real-time evacuation guidance.
  • Reduce non-essential travel, especially within volatile zones.

For families of deployed U.S. service members:

  • Monitor official Department of Defense notifications. Arrange emergency departure plans if offered.

For international travelers & global communities:

  • Stay informed via state department advisories.
  • Expect continued volatility in energy prices and stock markets; plan accordingly for possible travel or business interruptions.

🔍 What’s Next

  • Operation Rising Lion is expected to expand over several days as Israel aims to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
  • Iran’s response may include missile strikes on U.S. or allied assets in Iraq and the broader region—monitor credible sources for confirmation.
  • Diplomatic channels remain limited; the U.S. has officially disavowed Israeli involvement and maintains only protective—not offensive—missions in the region.

✅ Key Takeaways

AudienceRecommended Action
U.S. personnelFollow military/diplomatic safety directives; stay on alert
Civilians in regionMinimize travel; stay near shelters and monitor alerts
Global observersExpect geopolitical tension and market fluctuations

Stay tuned to official government channels and accredited news sources.  We’ll provide further updates as this evolving crisis continues.

Ongoing Geointel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.

© 2025 The DEFCON Warning System. Established 1984.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.