The DEFCON Warning System™

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Worried but Unready: How Prepared Are Americans for Disaster?

The United States experienced 27 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, with an estimated $182.7B in damages—second-highest number on record. That pace of large events has persisted every year since 2011. [1]

Against that backdrop, we asked a simple question: Do Americans’ attitudes about risk translate into actual, durable preparedness? The latest federal survey suggests a mixed picture: more people are doing something, but depth of preparedness remains shallow.


Attitudes vs. Actions: What the data say

FEMA’s 2024 National Household Survey (NHS)—7,525 U.S. respondents, fielded April–June 2024—measured actions, attitudes, and motivations: [2]

  • Taking action: 83% reported taking three or more preparedness actions in 2024 (up from 57% in 2023; instrument change caveat noted). [3]
  • Supplies on hand: 69% assembled emergency supplies; of those, 88% say their kit would last >3 days, but only 34% say >2 weeks. Depth drops fast beyond that. [4]
  • Confidence (“preparedness efficacy”): Just 32% report high efficacy (very/extremely confident and believe preparation helps a great deal). [5]
  • Perceived risk: 43% say they or their family have experienced a disaster; 32% believe a disaster is very/extremely likely where they live. [6]
  • Expected help: In a disaster, 71% expect support from friends/family, 52% from the federal government (top expected help: food/water, shelter, first aid). [7]
  • Top barriers: Cost (26%) and not knowing what else to do (25%). [8]

Bottom line: Americans are increasingly aware and active, but most households have not built beyond a days-long buffer, especially for water and power disruptions.


“How far away is disaster?”—Perception vs. preparation

The NHS measures likelihood of impact rather than physical distance. In 2024, 32% of Americans rated a disaster in their area as very/extremely likely. Meanwhile, only 34% of households with kits say their supplies would last >2 weeks. These are population-level figures—not a one-to-one match—but they illustrate a perception–preparation gap: many who foresee high risk still lack depth of supplies. [9]

NHS also asked how long people could stay home without utilities:

  • Running water: >3 days (61%), but only 17% said >2 weeks.
  • Power (warm temps): >3 days (63%), 26% said >2 weeks.
  • Power (cold temps): >3 days (59%), 24% said >2 weeks. [10]

What agencies recommend (and what DWS believes)

  • Water:
    • Ready.gov (FEMA/DHS): store ≥1 gallon/person/day for several days (drinking & sanitation). [11]
    • CDC: 1 gallon/person/day for 3 days; try for 2 weeks if possible. [12]
    • American Red Cross: 1 gallon/person/day; 3 days if evacuating; 2 weeks at home (food and water). [13]

DWS Position: While several public-health and national organizations point to two weeks at home (particularly for water), The DEFCON Warning System considers two weeks wholly inadequate for major disasters that disrupt supply chains and utilities over large regions.

  • Aim for 1–2 months of at-home supplies where feasible.
  • In the extreme case of nuclear war, DWS advocates two years of core sustainment (with staged storage, rotation, and self-reliant water sourcing/purification).

A “Typical Family” vs. Actual Needs

Below is a practical comparison for a family of four (two adults, two school-age children) sheltering at home.

Baseline math

  • Water:1 gallon/person/day (minimum).
    • 2 weeks: 1 × 4 × 14 = 56 gallons
    • 60 days (≈2 months): 1 × 4 × 60 = 240 gallons
      (Hot climates, illness, infants, and sanitation can push needs higher.) [14][15]
  • Food energy: Use 2,000 kcal/day as a general planning reference (the federal nutrition label baseline).
    • 2 weeks: 2,000 × 4 × 14 = 112,000 kcal
    • 60 days: 2,000 × 4 × 60 = 480,000 kcal
      (Adjust for age, sex, pregnancy, activity, and medical needs.) [16][17]

Kit depth snapshot (family of 4)

Category“Typical” per NHSMeets 2-week baseline?Meets 1–2 month target (DWS)?
WaterMany have “several days”; few quantify >2 weeksOften noTypically no unless using drums/tanks + purification
FoodPantry + some shelf-stable itemsSometimes (if intentionally stocked)Rarely without deliberate bulk storage/rotation
Medications7–14 days common; refills interrupted in disastersPartiallyNo (target 30–90 days where feasible)
Power/LightFlashlights/batteries common; backup power uncommonShort outagesLimited (consider battery bank + small solar/generator)
SanitationOften overlookedGaps (liners, bags, bleach, wipes)Gaps grow without planning
Comms/InfoPhones; few have NOAA radioOften lackingInvest: hand-crank/solar radio
Documents/CashMixedVariesNeeded: copies + some cash on hand

Notes: 69% report assembling supplies, but only 34% say their supplies would last >2 weeks. Backup power and water storage are frequent shortfalls. [18]


What people worry about (and what actually fails)

NHS respondents were most concerned about going without water (67%) and power (≈60–63%)—exactly the lifelines that regularly fail first in storms and heat waves. Yet most kits are not sized to maintain weeks of self-sufficiency without these services. [19]


Closing the gap: A practical readiness plan

Start with the accepted public baseline, then build toward DWS targets over time.

  1. Water first.
    • Minimum: 1 gal/person/day; 3 days is a floor, 2 weeks preferred; scale toward 60 days with drums (e.g., 55-gal), stackable jugs, and purification (filters, tabs, or boiling). [20][21]
  2. Food you already eat.
    • Pantry-style rotation of shelf-stable staples (rice, beans, pasta, canned meats/veg, nut butters, UHT milk). Build to 112,000 kcal (2 weeks) then toward 480,000 kcal (≈2 months). Use the 2,000-kcal day as a planning yardstick, then tailor. [22]
  3. Medications & essentials.
    • Work with your pharmacist/insurer to maintain 30–90 days of critical meds where allowed. Pack extra glasses, infant supplies, and pet needs. (Red Cross lists 7 days as a basic minimum—go beyond it.) [23]
  4. Light, power, and comms.
    • Flashlights, headlamps, spare batteries; a NOAA Weather Radio (hand-crank/solar). Consider a battery bank plus modest solar or a generator for refrigeration/medical devices. (Red Cross/Ready.gov list radios as core items.) [24][25]
  5. Sanitation & shelter-in-place.
    • Heavy-duty trash bags/liners, moist towelettes, gloves, and unscented bleach for disinfection; plastic sheeting & duct tape are standard shelter-in-place items. [26]
  6. Documents, cash, and routes.
    • Copies of IDs/insurance in a waterproof pouch, some cash, and a paper map; know evacuation routes. (All appear on Ready/Red Cross checklists.) [27][28]

Special case: Radiological/nuclear events

For fallout scenarios, the public guidance is simple: “Get inside, stay inside, tune in.” In addition to the above, prioritize sealed water, indoor sheltering, and radio reception to receive official instructions. (Plastic sheeting/duct tape are already in federal kit guidance.) DWS reiterates: for the most severe, prolonged disruptions, two years of core sustainment is an aspirational—but in our view prudent—target for those with the means and space. [29]


What keeps people from preparing—and how to beat it

  • Cost (26%) → Build gradually: add two extra shelf-stable items and one gallon of water per person each shopping trip. Focus on versatile staples. [30]
  • Don’t know what to do (25%) → Start with Red Cross/Ready.gov checklists (radio, water, food, first aid), then extend duration. [31][32]
  • Time (23%) → Schedule a 90-minute “kit block” quarterly: inventory, rotate, top-off water/food. [33]

Quick self-check (5 questions)

  1. Do you have 56 gallons of water for a two-week stay-home plan (family of four)?
  2. Can your food stores cover 112,000 kcal without power?
  3. Do you have 7–30+ days of necessary medications?
  4. Can you get emergency updates if cell and internet are down?
  5. Could you manage sanitation for 2+ weeks?

If you answered “no” to two or more, start with water and a NOAA radio this week.


Sources

  • FEMA – National Household Survey (2024) Findings (released May 7, 2025). Core statistics on actions, risk perception, supply duration, expected support, and barriers. [34]
  • NOAA/NCEI – Assessing the U.S. Climate in 2024 (27 billion-dollar disasters; $182.7B cost). [35]
  • Ready.gov (water and kit guidance) and CDC (emergency water storage). [36][37]
  • American Red Cross (3-day evacuation / 2-week at-home supplies checklist). [38]
  • FDA (2,000-calorie baseline used on federal nutrition labeling). [39]

Ongoing Geointel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.

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© 2025 The DEFCON Warning System. Established 1984.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.