Since February 2024, the date of the last edition of the Geiger Counter, the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program has worsened significantly. Major negative factors include Iran’s greater nuclear weapon capabilities, its shorter time frames to build nuclear weapons, and the growing normalization of internal Iranian discussions favoring building nuclear weapons. The possibility of Iran deciding to build nuclear weapons has been increased by the ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East, pitting Iran and its proxy forces against Israel and its allies, a conflict Iran is losing. The volatile security situation is now combined with the perception, if not the reality, that Iran is preparing to build nuclear weapons.
The uncertainty is worsened by Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the IAEA as it tries to establish that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful. With Iran making thousands of advanced centrifuges outside the monitoring of the IAEA, as witnessed by deployments at declared enrichment sites, the chance has risen that Iran is also building, or laying in place, a secret enrichment plant. As uncertainty grows, this or a black swan event could occur. This uncertainty could also feed narratives that exaggerate the threat, further increasing tensions.
The ongoing conflicts have led to an increased urgency of eliminating the Iranian nuclear weapons threat, whether through renewed negotiation, increased pressure and threats of military force, or actual military force. But no clear path forward has emerged, and the success of any path is not guaranteed, and, at any moment, the Iranian leadership may launch a secret crash program to build nuclear weapons.
These grave and concerning changes have led the Institute to raise the total threat score to 157 out of 180, up from 151 in February 2024, indicating Extreme Danger for a second consecutive assessment.
The points are the result of Iran’s hostile actions (current score of 20 points) against the United States and its allies, hostile rhetoric (29 points), short nuclear breakout time (30 points), progress on developing sensitive nuclear capabilities (27 points), lack of transparency over its nuclear program (24 points), and nuclear weaponization efforts beyond breakout (current score of 27 points). The overall score increased since February 2024, maintaining an overall threat score of Extreme Danger.
