The Russia-U.S. relationship (or lack thereof) has long dominated Arctic geopolitics. Geography makes the two neighbors and stakeholders sharing the challenges of a warming region. President Trump’s enduring interest in acquiring Greenland injects further potential geostrategic challenges in the region’s icy arena. When the idea was floated during his initial term in office, the immediate response from Russian leadership, state-operated media, and the public was a flood of memes.
The second time around, however, Russia’s domestic discourse has a more strategic flavor. Discussions now appear to focus less on the “novelty” of such an acquisition and more on understanding the “objectives.” Three potential scenarios for U.S.-Greenland relations are being debated in Moscow in terms of the strategic implications for Russia.
The primary scenario is the maintenance of the status quo. Maintaining the status quo would undoubtedly work in Russia’s favor, as it would allow Moscow to maintain its position as the major military stakeholder in the Arctic. Moscow is wary, however, of the Danish Government’s potential to respond to Trump’s rhetoric by deepening ties with China. The Russia-China relationship is complex, integrated, and fueled by the regional ambitions of both players. Greenland has long provided a potential platform for increased Chinese presence in the Arctic, which pushes both Moscow and Beijing to deepen cooperation.
Of course, Denmark (and Greenland) has a successful track record of pushing back on China’s economic encroachment. Attempted investments in Greenlandic airports and key sovereign infrastructure have been thwarted. However, Russian discourse appears concerned over the current state of confusion and uncertainty in European politics. This may yet provide fertile ground for China’s agile foreign policy with Russia’s encouragement to take root in the High North.
A second scenario discussed in Russia is the incremental expansion of the U.S. presence in Greenland. This poses significant challenges for Russia. These challenges can be categorized into three primary areas: the strengthening of U.S. military presence in the Arctic, control over strategic sea lines of communication in the High North, and control over rare earth mineral deposits.
