The DEFCON Warning System™

Ongoing GeoIntel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.  DEFCON Level assessment issued for public notification.  Established 1984.

Can the Iran nuclear threat be neutralized?

Despite the Biden administration’s reluctance to present a resolution condemning Iran’s nuclear program escalation to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors, which met in Vienna on Monday after 18 months of diplomatic inaction, some European nations have decided to take action.

The resolution presented by France, Germany and the U.K. Monday night cites “the urgency to act given the seriousness of the situation” and marks the first resolution since 2022 regarding Iran’s nuclear activities. The justification for the resolution is that while Tehran consistently denies seeking a bomb, its program continues to rapidly advance and expand.

According to the IAEA, Iran is the only country enriching uranium up to 60% and accumulating significant quantities of highly enriched uranium, or HEU. The Institute for Science and International Security in London writes in an analysis of the agency” findings on the truthfulness of Iran’s atomic project: “The total capacity of centrifuges for producing weapon grade uranium (WGU) is sufficient, as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU, for roughly eight nuclear weapons in one month, ten in two months, twelve in three months, and thirteen in four months.”

The institute warns that with Iran’s increasingly experienced uranium enrichment capacity, even using only a portion of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, Iran could produce its first 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium in about a week. If Iran delays inspector access, rapid detection of this uranium diversion may be challenging.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran, or NCRI, a dissident group that calls for the overthrow of the radical Islamic regime ruling Iran and offers what many consider a viable alternative to it, revealed the existence of an organization called SPND – which in English translates to the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research.

Recently, NCRI revealed that during the presidency of Ebrahim Raisi, specific changes were made within this organization managing nuclear weapons production to divert attention and prevent the real objectives of SPND from being exposed to the International Atomic Energy Agency. One of these changes involved utilizing Islamic Azad University and its extensive scientific facilities for this research. Islamic Azad University is Iran’s largest university complex – according to regime data, it has over one million students – and provides services to the regime’s weapons program. According to information obtained from the National Council of Resistance, the regime transferred several key individuals of the nuclear weapons project to Islamic Azad University to continue their work under its cover.

Raisi, the president of Iran who was killed in a helicopter crash in northern Iran on May 19, appointed Mohammad Islamian, one of the senior officers of the Revolutionary Guards, as the head of the Atomic Energy Organization to expand the regime’s nuclear activities. Islamian, as the head of the Revolutionary Guards Research Center in the 1980s, had obtained a nuclear weapons program through Abdul Qadir Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb.

The fact that Tehran is a step away from a nuclear bomb and has framed its program like the sword of Damocles over Mideast and Western peace and security is largely the result of Western appeasement policies toward the country. The Iranian regime seeks to extort from Western nations while escaping the military consequences for the havoc it has unleashed in the Middle East.

Nevertheless, contrary to popular misconceptions, Tehran is currently at its weakest point in years. In this weakness, the death of Raisi has dealt an irreparable and strategic blow to the Iranian theocracy. The presence of figures like Ali Larijani, who served as speaker of Parliament for three terms, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president from 2005 to 2013, as candidates in the early presidential elections, while disqualified in previous elections in favor of Raisi, demonstrates the significant weakness of the Tehran dictatorship.

The world should not allow endless nuclear negotiations to be Tehran’s response to international pressure due to its human rights abuses and warmongering. Nor should it allow the arming of such a regime with nuclear weapons – the ultimate tool for the mullahs’ future extortion attempts.

Originally published at WND

Ongoing Geointel and Analysis in the theater of nuclear war.


© 2024 The DEFCON Warning System. Established 1984.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.