International politics is now defined by a world at war. The United States is consumed with a stalemate in Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression and what promises to be a long war by Israel to eradicate the terror group Hamas and its affiliates. This Middle East conflict may escalate as Iran, through its proxies, carries out attacks against both the United States and the Jewish State.
Though China is portraying itself as a fair and just potential broker of peace in the Middle East and Europe in contrast to America’s supposed warmongering, it is actually intensifying its own military and political pressure against Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines. It is also backing the aggressors in Europe and the Middle East. Over the near term, Beijing will be tempted to take even greater military risks unless Washington better prepares for this new era of global conflict.
China is benefiting from global conflict in several ways. It is backing Russia and Iran while scoring international propaganda wins in parts of the world that do not like Western foreign policy. Moreover, Beijing sees a freer hand for its coercion campaigns as it notes gaping deficits in U.S. weapons production capacity and military posture.
The Biden administration’s eager search for a “floor” in its relationship with Beijing resulted in a bilateral summit that helped Xi Jinping’s global image.
As Washington struggles with a piecemeal Ukraine strategy, China has ensured Russia can continue fighting for the foreseeable future. Trade between China and Russia has grown 30 percent this year, and total business in 2023 is expected to break $190 billion, last year’s record total. More than a third of all Russian oil exports now go to China, providing the Kremlin with a crucial source of war funding. China has also become a major player in Russia’s consumer market, with one of every two cars sold in Russia today, for example, originating in China. In addition, the PRC is reportedly assisting Iran in its development and provision of drones to Moscow. Xi also feted Putin at his recent Belt and Road Forum, reaffirming his commitment to the “no limits” partnership the two countries had signed at the beginning of Russia’s war on Ukraine and stressed the two would work together against the heavy-handed “bloc politics” that the United States allegedly promotes. Xi emphasized that Russia is a key part of his long-term strategy, stating at the forum that “developing the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination with ever-lasting good neighborliness and mutually beneficial cooperation is not an expediency, but a long-term commitment.” Beijing views Russia as a kindred spirit in its own national project of undoing the U.S. alliance system and building an alternative world order. A Russian victory in Europe has become a top Chinese priority.
