This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 9 P.M. UTC, Thursday, October 20th, 2022. Condition code is Blue. DEFCON 4.
There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time, however there are events occurring in the world theatre which require closer monitoring.
The Ukraine situation continues to be concerning with Russian losses mounting and Russia poised to lose even more captured territory. Analysts believe options for Russia are limited, more so due to the Russian President who will not accept a loss. This heightens the possibility of nuclear use by Russia as conditions continue to deteriorate. In the near term, however, there does not appear to be an imminent threat of nuclear attack. This can change based on battlefield conditions.
Russia has annexed additional Ukrainian territory, though it has not been able to hold on to them fully. The United States is currently favouring a conventional response in the event of Russian nuclear weapons use in Ukraine. Russia states that it will “defend Russia’s national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and people by all weapon systems available to us.”
Ukraine says it will apply for NATO membership under an expedited procedure. NATO says the door remains open for Ukraine to join, however NATO members are resistant to the application at this time.
The United States has reported that some of its munitions levels are “uncomfortably low.” Poland has entered into negotiations with NATO to enter the NATO nuclear sharing program. Meanwhile, China has toned down its support of Russia, stating that any use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable. NATO says that sabotage on Western targets could be grounds for triggering NATO’s Article 5.
Western countries have begun to make plans in the event Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Russia is re-equipping some Belarusian Su-25 aircraft with the technical capability to carry nuclear weapons. NATO has ruled out the possibility of activating the NATO nuclear umbrella for Ukraine, saying that such a nuclear shield is intended only for member states.
North Korea has fired a missile that has flown over Japan. In response, the United States is to re-deploy an aircraft carrier to the region. Additionally, North Korea has fired more missiles and munitions in a warning against South Korea and U.S. manoeuvres. South Korea warns that North Korea is preparing for another nuclear test.
United Nations nuclear watchdog reports that Iran is rapidly expanding its ability to enrich uranium at Natanz and intends to go further than previously planned.
The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack. If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it. Your readings will vary. Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.
For immediate updates, go to www.defconwarningsystem.com. Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed DEFCONWSAlerts. You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list. Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays. The next scheduled update is 9 P.M. UTC, November 10th, 2022. Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.
This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.
