This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 P.M., Monday, November 29th, 2021.  Condition code is Blue.  DEFCON 4.

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time, however there are events occurring in the world theatre which require closer monitoring.

The situation in the Ukraine theatre has taken a concerning turn.  While there has been a force buildup in the region, Russia has now stated that it will invade the country if provoked.  Additionally, it has warned NATO that any further buildup in the region will be interpreted a potential invasion of Russia.  It is unknown if this includes Crimea, though there is no reason to doubt this.

The country of Belarus has stated that it will side with Russia in the event of war and has begun moving assets to the border.

The DEFCON Warning System does not believe that Russia plans to invade and conquer Ukraine nor threaten the NATO country Poland.  Instead, any incursion by Russia will be limited to the southeast.

However, signs from NATO are worrying.  The alliance is reacting as if they expect Russia to move for Kiev.  This would put Russian forces close to Poland and would require NATO to react.

It is possible that NATO could read any movement by Russia further into Ukraine past the already-occupied Crimea area as a threat to Kiev and Poland.

Due to the possibility of conflict between NATO and Russia over Ukraine, we are alerting the public to be more aware of the events occurring in that region.

The DEFCON Warning System will continue to monitor the situation and issue appropriate alerts as necessary.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984.  It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch.  The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning.  At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.  If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it.  Your readings will vary.  Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.

For immediate updates, go to www.defconwarningsystem.com. Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed DEFCONWS Alerts. You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list. Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays. The next scheduled update is 2 P.M. Pacific Time, December 20th, 2021. Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.

This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.