DEFCON Status: Green – Condition 5
There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.
The DEFCON Warning System reports on key developments in global security and nuclear risk for the week ending July 28, 2025. This briefing includes significant developments in missile proliferation, nuclear posturing, and regional geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and Asia.
Turkey Unveils Hypersonic Ballistic Missile
Turkey has publicly unveiled its first hypersonic ballistic missile, the Tayfun Block 4, during the IDEF 2025 international defence industry fair. Developed by Roketsan under the oversight of the Turkish Defence Industries presidency, the missile weighs approximately 2,300 kg, is 6.5 metres in length, and has a reported range of around 800 kilometres.
Classified as hypersonic, the Tayfun Block 4 is capable of travelling in excess of Mach 5, enabling it to bypass most current air-defence systems. Its mission profile includes neutralising high-value military targets such as air-defence installations, command centres, and other hardened assets at standoff distances.
This development places Turkey alongside the United States, Russia, and China as one of the few countries with indigenously developed hypersonic capability. The advancement could significantly alter regional deterrence dynamics and may influence Turkey’s strategic partnerships, particularly with Pakistan, a regular customer of Turkish defence systems.
The Tayfun system also elevates Turkey’s strategic standing within NATO. However, its potential export raises concerns about broader regional proliferation. Nations within the strike radius—especially Greece, Cyprus, and Israel—are expected to reassess their defence postures and adjust NATO deployments accordingly.
Iran Reasserts Enrichment, Signals Preparedness for War
Iran has once again declared its intent to continue uranium enrichment despite mounting international pressure, and has issued fresh warnings of potential military escalation with Israel.
During a diplomatic forum in Istanbul on July 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran would not relinquish its nuclear enrichment rights, framing them as intrinsic under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Days earlier, on July 23, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared in a televised interview that Iran remains “fully prepared for any new Israeli military move,” further claiming that Iranian forces could strike “deep into Israel again” if provoked.
This rhetoric follows the recent Israeli–U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, which reportedly caused significant damage. Despite this, Tehran has reaffirmed its intent to resume full enrichment operations.
Araghchi also outlined conditions for resuming talks with the United States, demanding formal recognition of Iran’s right to enrichment under the NPT and initial steps toward confidence-building. Meanwhile, European diplomats have warned that sanctions may be reinstated as early as August if Iran fails to re-engage meaningfully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and provide concrete concessions.
This posture highlights Iran’s dual-track approach—public defiance coupled with backchannel dialogue. However, it raises hard red lines for Israeli policymakers and risks drawing the United States back into open confrontation. Iran’s readiness to escalate increases the likelihood of conflict across the Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean.
Israeli Knesset Votes for Symbolic West Bank Annexation
On July 23, 2025, the Israeli Knesset voted 71–13 in favour of a non-binding resolution calling for the annexation of the occupied West Bank, including Judea, Samaria, and the Jordan Valley—terms used by Israeli officials for the region.
Although the resolution has no legal force, it reflects the growing consensus within Israel’s governing coalition to pursue territorial integration. The measure drew immediate condemnation from Palestinian authorities and Jordan, which warned that it could destabilise the region and destroy the viability of the two-state solution.
The resolution may embolden further settler expansion and complicate any future peace negotiations. For Palestinians and neighbouring powers, it represents a dangerous shift in Israeli policy that could spark retaliatory diplomatic moves or violence. Critically, it may also provoke responses from nuclear-armed Pakistan or potentially nuclear-capable Iran, both of whom maintain a hostile stance toward Israeli territorial expansion.
India Tests Long-Range Hypersonic Cruise Missile
Between July 14–16, India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) conducted a successful test of its new ET-LDHCM hypersonic cruise missile at a range on its eastern coast. The missile demonstrated high-precision targeting and performance under extreme thermal conditions, with temperatures during flight reaching 2,000°C.
The ET-LDHCM is reported to travel at speeds exceeding Mach 8, with a maximum range of up to 1,500 kilometres. The system incorporates electronic countermeasure resistance and a sea-skimming trajectory profile to avoid radar detection.
The test marks a major advancement in India’s Project Vishnu, placing it among the few nations—such as the U.S., Russia, and China—with operational or near-operational hypersonic cruise missiles. While past assessments described Indian tests as early-stage, this demonstration suggests India is approaching field readiness.
In the context of the broader Indo-Pacific region, this enhances India’s deterrent posture toward both China and Pakistan. The missile’s range and manoeuvrability could challenge Chinese missile defence networks and may accelerate a regional arms competition, particularly among technologically capable neighbouring states.
IAEA Warning and Diplomatic Tensions Rise
In parallel with the E3–Iran talks in Istanbul on July 25, the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency warned that Iran could resume full-scale uranium enrichment within months, noting that the technical expertise required for such activity cannot be undone.
Amid these tensions, France has announced formal recognition of a Palestinian state, making it the first major Western power to take such a step in the current cycle of conflict. The decision, which is expected to be codified at the United Nations General Assembly in September, has been met with criticism from Israel, which views the move as a threat to peace, and from the United States, which has expressed concern about its timing.
The declaration may further isolate Israel diplomatically, even as it consolidates support domestically for unilateral measures in the West Bank. Meanwhile, it could embolden other European nations to follow suit, compounding regional volatility.
DEFCON Status and Advisory
The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack. If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it. Your readings will vary. Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.
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Be informed. Be alert. Be prepared.
This concludes the briefing from The DEFCON Warning System.
