The death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last Saturday came as a strategic blow to the Iranian regime, further weakening the already fragile theocracy. In this situation, the regime needs Western complacency more than ever to freely suppress internal dissent. Additionally, it would seek to divert attention from internal issues by interfering in the region and pursuing belligerent policies. Acquiring a nuclear weapon would serve this goal perfectly.
The Iranian regime’s deterrence doctrine has been severely compromised. When Israel, in response to a direct attack from Tehran on its own territory, merely targeted the Iranian defense site in Isfahan, where the S-300 missile defense system protecting Iran’s nuclear facilities was located, it dealt a blow to Tehran’s deterrence. The province of Isfahan hosts the Natanz nuclear site and other critical nuclear facilities of the Tehran regime. In response to Israel’s attack, Kamal Kharazi, former foreign minister, and head of the regime’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated, “If they [Israel] want to strike Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it could obviously lead to a change in Iran’s nuclear doctrine.” In other words, the regime might take the final step towards manufacturing a nuclear bomb.
After the elimination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani, a key figure in the Iranian theocracy, in January 2020 by a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei aimed to achieve deterrent capability to force the West to back off. Khamenei advanced his deterrence capability on two fronts: training and equipping militias – even providing groups like Hamas and the Houthis with missile and drone factories – and improving his own missile manufacturing capabilities. In this regard, Khamenei sought to position himself as a regional power after triggering the Gaza war.
However, the recent legislative elections in Iran, whose second round took place two weeks ago, attracted only about 7% of eligible voters despite various pressures. Suddenly, it became clear to everyone that the regime, which seeks to present itself as a regional power, is nothing but a terrorist state aiming to intimidate the West into accepting its behavior.
In this state of internal isolation, Khamenei is besieged by imminent uprisings. After several purges, there are currently divisions even among the regime’s repressive forces. Meanwhile, resistance units in Iran, under the leadership of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, or PMOI/MEK, have managed, despite heavy security measures, to boycott the elections and push back on the regime with thousands of propaganda operations breaking the wall of repression. In response, the regime has sent morality police patrols into the streets and increased the number of executions, becoming the world leader in executing women.
Israel targeted the architect of Al-Aqsa storm – the Hamas terror-military operation that started last Oct. 7 – by attacking the Iranian regime’s operations room in the Middle East located in the Iranian consulate in Syria, starting a new phase of the war. The Iranian regime, which did not want to enter the Gaza war directly, was now forced to come out and attack directly, marking a turning point in the conflict. Time is against the mullahs in this war. However, they desperately need Western paralysis, and this goal can be achieved through nuclear intimidation, especially after the elimination of President Ebrahim Raisi, a strategic blow to the regime that has disrupted its balance.
Khamenei stated in his latest speech that the Gaza war must remain at the forefront of world news. It is clear that the Iranian regime needs crises to continue to survive, but it is possible that it will also use the current war as cover for taking the final step towards manufacturing a nuclear bomb.
In general, building a nuclear weapon requires three elements:
1. Sufficient quantities of enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb: The religious dictator has accumulated enough 60% enriched uranium, a well-known fact. Reaching 90% enrichment, necessary for making a nuclear weapon, would take only a few weeks. With the unparalleled cunning of this regime, it is even possible that it already possesses this capability.
2. Nuclear engineering: The regime has been working on nuclear engineering and detonator manufacturing, as revealed by the Iranian Resistance back in February 2008. It was revealed that specialists at the command center for nuclear bomb manufacturing were working on the production of polonium-210 and beryllium for bomb detonators. According to available information, the regime has not yet succeeded in testing a nuclear weapon, which is the final stage of its development.
3. Missiles capable of carrying nuclear bombs: According to reliable information obtained by the Iranian Resistance from within the mullahs’ regime, Tehran is actively pursuing a nuclear warhead production program. This project is taking place in Tehran, in a region called Khojir. The Khojir complex is a heavily secured military area, primarily dedicated to the production of long-range missiles such as the Shahab-3. Part of this site is reportedly actively engaged in the project to build nuclear warheads.
The mullahs’ regime has been intent on blackmailing the West by claiming to be on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon, so as to extort concessions and bring Western countries to the negotiating table. At the same time, it wants to avoid paying the political price for actually building a nuclear weapon. This policy has so far benefited the mullahs’ dictatorship.
However, any complacency towards this regime seriously endangers world peace. Not only do the Iranian people, two-thirds of whom live below the poverty line, pay astronomical sums for the nuclear program, but the security of Middle Eastern inhabitants and, ultimately, that of Europeans as well, is also threatened. Supporting the Iranian people in establishing a non-nuclear government as well as a secular and democratic republic in Iran is the only solution. The Iranian regime has left no other option.
