Alert Status
This is The DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 6th February 2026:
Condition Blue – DEFCON 4.
There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time. However, there are events occurring in the world theatre which require closer monitoring.
Iran Reaffirms Uranium Enrichment and Missile Policy
Over the past week, the Islamic Republic of Iran has reiterated a firm stance on its nuclear programme, asserting that it will never relinquish its right to uranium enrichment and will not negotiate restrictions on its ballistic missile programme, despite ongoing diplomacy with the United States.
Recent reporting confirms Tehran’s refusal to make concessions on these core capabilities, stating that any talks with Washington will not include limitations on its missile systems and that uranium enrichment remains a sovereign right.
This position reflects long-standing Iranian policy. Tehran maintains that its enrichment activities are intended for peaceful energy and industrial purposes, while asserting compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). However, the refusal to halt enrichment or negotiate missile limitations continues to be a major impediment in negotiations with Washington, which seeks broader and more comprehensive constraints.
Iran’s leadership argues that enrichment is essential for civilian power generation and technological autonomy. Observers note, however, that allowing higher levels of enrichment without international limits increases Iran’s “breakout potential”—the theoretical time required to produce weapons-grade material should a political decision be made to do so.
While Iranian officials continue to deny any intention to develop nuclear weapons, the quantity and quality of enriched uranium remain points of international concern.
Verification Offers and IAEA Access
Contrasting with its refusal to restrict enrichment or missile development, Iranian officials have stated a willingness to allow “any verification” of their nuclear facilities to demonstrate that the country is not pursuing nuclear weapons.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking during a public anniversary event, declared that Iran is prepared to invite broad verification measures by international inspectors in order to demonstrate peaceful intent.
This apparent offer represents a tactical adjustment, though not a substantive change in policy. It appears intended to reassure the international community while preserving Iran’s core nuclear capabilities. However, the specifics of this proposed verification regime remain unclear.
Iran has not restored full access for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to several key facilities that were damaged in prior conflicts. These include major sites such as Natanz and Fordow.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi has emphasised that full and unrestricted access is essential for credible verification. Without comprehensive access, inspectors are unable to account for all nuclear materials or verify the absence of undeclared activity.
This situation creates a fundamental contradiction: Iran’s rhetorical openness to verification exists alongside restricted physical access and ongoing enrichment. Verification without comprehensive transparency leaves significant uncertainty regarding the true scope of Iran’s nuclear programme.
Geneva Negotiations and Diplomatic Stalemate
Diplomatic engagement between Iran and the United States has entered a second round of negotiations in Geneva, hosted under the auspices of Oman and mediated through external diplomatic channels.
These talks follow an earlier indirect round held in February, which failed to resolve key disputes. Tehran continues to insist that negotiations must focus on its right to enrichment and the removal of economic sanctions. Washington, in contrast, seeks verifiable limits on nuclear infrastructure and long-term monitoring mechanisms.
Iran’s foreign minister and senior delegation met with the IAEA director immediately prior to the talks, signalling engagement on technical issues. However, Iranian representatives have reaffirmed their refusal to compromise on fundamental policy positions.
Some Iranian diplomats have stated that the “ball is in America’s court,” indicating that Tehran is awaiting concrete sanctions relief in exchange for limited compliance measures.
The United States, including senior diplomatic officials, has warned that failure to reach an agreement could destabilise the region. The Trump administration has maintained that it remains open to diplomacy while also emphasising military preparedness should negotiations fail.
At present, talks remain characterised by entrenched positions and limited progress.
Regional Military Activity and Maritime Tensions
Alongside diplomatic efforts, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters.
These manoeuvres demonstrate Tehran’s continued emphasis on controlling strategically vital maritime routes. The exercises took place during the same reporting period as ongoing negotiations, underscoring Iran’s use of military activity as a form of strategic signalling.
The drills occurred amid increased U.S. military presence in the region, including the deployment of a second aircraft carrier strike group. Iranian state media portrayed the exercises as demonstrations of readiness and deterrence.
Regional tensions have been further heightened by incidents at sea, including the downing of an Iranian drone by a U.S. fighter jet and reported harassment of commercial vessels.
While these incidents do not constitute direct nuclear threats, they contribute to an unstable security environment. In periods of heightened tension, conventional military encounters increase the risk of miscalculation and escalation, which can intersect dangerously with nuclear policy disputes.
In the event of broader conflict, vital sea lanes supporting global energy markets and military logistics could become flashpoints, significantly raising the stakes for all involved parties.
Overall Assessment
Recent developments reflect a complex interplay of diplomacy, strategic signalling, and military posturing.
Iran’s refusal to abandon enrichment or negotiate missile restrictions stands in tension with its declared willingness to accept verification measures. This dual approach appears designed to maintain leverage while reducing international pressure.
At the same time, naval activity in critical waterways and continued U.S. military deployments demonstrate that nuclear risk cannot be separated from broader regional security dynamics.
While no immediate nuclear threat is present at this time, unresolved disputes, limited transparency, and persistent regional tensions continue to pose long-term risks to stability.
Ongoing negotiations in Geneva will remain a key factor in determining whether these risks diminish or intensify in the coming months.
About the DEFCON Warning System
The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch.
The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.
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Updates and Scheduling
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The next scheduled update is 1 PM, 23rd February 2026. Additional updates will be issued as circumstances warrant, with more frequent reports at higher alert levels.
This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.
