Condition Green – DEFCON 5
There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.
Iran Issues Ultimatum to the United States
On 3 November 2025, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a stark ultimatum to the United States, declaring that Tehran would refuse any engagement or diplomatic contact unless Washington first met three non-negotiable conditions:
- End U.S. support for the “accursed Zionist regime” — a reference to Israel.
- Withdraw all U.S. forces and military bases from the Middle East.
- Cease interference in regional affairs, granting Iran and its proxies greater operational freedom.
Khamenei stated, “Cooperation with Iran is not possible as long as the U.S. continues to support Israel, maintains military bases, and interferes in the region.”
The ultimatum effectively raises the diplomatic bar to an almost unreachable level. By linking any potential talks to sweeping U.S. policy reversals, Iran is signalling a desire for structural re-ordering rather than incremental diplomacy.
For Washington, these conditions are not realistically achievable in the short term. U.S. regional policy remains built upon close alliances — notably with Israel — forward-deployed forces, and active influence in regional security affairs. Meeting Tehran’s demands would require a fundamental shift in American strategy.
For regional actors such as Israel and the Gulf States, this move signals Iran’s ambition not merely for deterrence but for a re-definition of regional power. If Iran maintains its position, diplomatic channels between Tehran and Washington could close indefinitely.
From a threat-assessment standpoint, while the immediate nuclear risk remains low, diplomatic paralysis increases the possibility of miscalculation or proxy conflict. Limited skirmishes could escalate rapidly, adding volatility to an already tense region.
Iran Claims Development of a 10,000 km Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
In a second major announcement, Iran claimed to have developed a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a reported range of up to 10,000 kilometres — a reach that, if genuine, could theoretically place both Europe and parts of the U.S. mainland within striking distance.
The report, originating from Iranian state-affiliated media, remains unverified by independent intelligence or Western defence officials. Previously, Iran’s longest acknowledged missile range was approximately 2,000–3,000 kilometres. Achieving a jump to 10,000 km would require substantial advances in multi-stage propulsion, re-entry technology, and guidance systems.
Whether this claim reflects a functional system or strategic posturing, the announcement itself is significant. It signals Tehran’s intent to shift its deterrence narrative from regional to global scope.
If credible, the development would alter the strategic calculus for U.S. homeland defence planners, who may need to re-evaluate assumptions about Iranian missile reach. It would also increase pressure on European and Asian allies, positioning Iran as a potential global deterrent rather than a regional one.
Politically, the claim bolsters Tehran’s image of strength and may improve its leverage in proxy theatres such as Lebanon and Yemen. Operationally, however, verification remains key — satellite imagery, radar tracking, and test data will be required before the claim can be substantiated. For now, it should be regarded as an aspirational declaration rather than a proven capability.
Russia Launches the Khabarovsk Nuclear-Capable Submarine
Russia has officially launched the Project 09851 Khabarovsk-class submarine — its first series-produced carrier designed for the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo system.
Described as a “heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser,” the Khabarovsk is believed to serve as a launch platform for Poseidon — an autonomous, long-range nuclear torpedo capable of delivering massive warheads and, according to some Russian statements, creating “radioactive tsunamis” aimed at coastal infrastructure.
The introduction of this submarine marks a new phase in undersea strategic deterrence. It expands Russia’s nuclear delivery options beyond traditional intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers, complicating Western detection and interception strategies.
The vessel’s commissioning demonstrates Moscow’s continued investment in unconventional nuclear systems designed to bypass missile defences. The move strengthens Russia’s second-strike capability and elevates risk levels for NATO maritime forces and coastal populations.
Although the Khabarovsk has been launched, it is expected to undergo extensive fitting out and trials before operational deployment. Even so, the psychological and strategic impact is immediate — signalling to the West that Russia is pressing forward with advanced, less predictable deterrent technologies.
Russia Reaffirms Nuclear-Test Moratorium — With Conditions
Moscow also made headlines this week by reaffirming its commitment to the international ban on nuclear-weapons testing — but with a notable caveat. Kremlin officials stated that Russia would remain within the testing moratorium unless other nations, particularly the United States, resumed nuclear testing, in which case Russia would act “to maintain parity.”
The DEFCON Warning System notes that statements from Washington concerning “resuming nuclear tests” are widely interpreted abroad as referring to missile-system trials, personnel exercises, and computer-based simulation, rather than live nuclear detonations. However, ambiguity in U.S. language has led other countries to assume the worst — that actual nuclear testing might soon return.
Such perceptions are destabilising. Should either side conduct a physical nuclear test, it would effectively end the post-Cold War moratorium and risk triggering a cascade of reciprocal tests by Russia, China, and potentially other nuclear powers. The result would be a significant erosion of the arms-control architecture that has restrained nuclear brinkmanship for more than three decades.
Outlook and Risk Summary
Collectively, these developments represent a complex and shifting strategic environment:
- Iran’s ultimatum closes the door to dialogue while heightening regional tension and proxy volatility.
- Iran’s ICBM claim, though unverified, projects ambitions well beyond the Middle East, challenging global deterrence assumptions.
- Russia’s Khabarovsk submarine launch underscores continued investment in exotic nuclear-delivery systems, broadening the landscape of potential threats.
- Ambiguity over nuclear testing risks undermining decades of arms-control progress and re-introducing a destabilising arms-race dynamic.
Despite these signals, DEFCON remains at Condition Green – DEFCON 5, reflecting no immediate nuclear threat. Yet the trendlines point toward rising strategic complexity and a growing risk of miscalculation across multiple theatres.
About the DEFCON Warning System
The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organisation that has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch.
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The next scheduled update is 1 PM UTC, 17 November 2025. Additional updates will be issued as circumstances warrant, with more frequent reports at higher alert levels.
This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.
