Current alert status for 1530 UTC, July 21, 2025
Condition Green: DEFCON 5.
There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.
United States Increases Economic Pressure on Russia
On July 14, U.S. President Trump announced a significant shift in U.S. policy by leveraging economic pressure to compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine. Speaking alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office, the president issued a stark warning: Russia must agree to a peace settlement within 50 days or face 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing to trade in Russian oil, gas, and other exports.
Russia responded by dismissing the ultimatum. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov indicated that Moscow was open to conditional negotiations, but rejected any form of ultimatum. The Kremlin characterised the U.S. threats as ineffective, and Russian financial markets remained resilient—stocks rose 2.7%, and the rouble posted modest gains.
This development represents a new strategic approach from the West, combining military aid with economic deterrence. The NATO arms package, which includes additional Patriot missile systems, has the potential to shift battlefield dynamics if deployed swiftly. However, the threat of secondary tariffs carries its own risks—especially in straining relations with nations such as India and China, which continue economic ties with Russia. For Moscow, the increased cost of international trade may eventually erode long-term war sustainability, especially if key partners scale back energy imports.
Russia Warns Against Long-Range Weapons Transfers
In response to the growing pressure, Russia escalated its rhetoric, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declaring that any Western transfer of long-range missile systems to Ukraine would be considered an act of war. The statement signalled a more aggressive posture and an implied readiness to respond if such weapons are delivered.
Coinciding with this threat, Moscow intensified its missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, launching one of the most destructive assaults in recent months. Civilian infrastructure was targeted, including a kindergarten, a supermarket, and a subway entrance in the Shevchenkivskyi district. At least two civilians were killed and fifteen wounded in the barrage.
Russia’s use of the term “act of war” is likely intended to deter NATO weapon deliveries by raising the perceived risk of escalation. Should Ukraine acquire longer-range capabilities, Moscow fears the possibility of deep strikes against command centres and logistics nodes. While this rhetoric has not yet translated into overt military responses against NATO, it injects a level of strategic ambiguity that may pressure Western policymakers to reconsider support thresholds.
Iran Threatens NPT Withdrawal and 90% Enrichment
In the Middle East, tensions are also rising. Over the past week, Iran has threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if UN sanctions are reimposed following the expiration of a de facto diplomatic deadline this August. Iranian officials have stated that, should sanctions “snap back,” the country would consider enriching uranium to 90% purity, a level suitable for nuclear weapons.
This development represents a serious challenge to global non-proliferation efforts. Withdrawal from the NPT would eliminate many of the monitoring and transparency mechanisms currently in place and could ignite a nuclear arms race in the region.
Iran Nuclear Site Damage Assessment Released
Iran’s hardline stance comes on the heels of a newly released damage assessment of U.S. airstrikes conducted in June 2025 against Iranian nuclear facilities. Contrary to initial U.S. statements that the facilities had been “obliterated,” the report shows that only one of the three targeted sites was significantly damaged.
- Fordow, a heavily fortified underground site, appears to have been the most severely hit. Independent analysis suggests that operations there could be delayed by up to two years.
- However, the other two locations—Natanz and Isfahan—suffered only superficial to moderate damage. Their core infrastructure remains largely intact, and uranium enrichment could resume within months.
Despite President Trump’s continued assertions that all three sites were successfully neutralised, intelligence and media sources suggest otherwise. The inconsistency in public messaging could further undermine Western credibility and offer Tehran justification for an escalated nuclear programme.
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This concludes the July 21, 2025 briefing from The DEFCON Warning System.
Stay vigilant. Stay prepared.
