The recent escalation between India and Pakistan has reignited global concerns over the potential for a nuclear conflict between these two long-standing adversaries. On May 6, 2025, India launched “Operation Sindoor,” a series of missile strikes targeting what it described as “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. These strikes were in retaliation for a deadly attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22, which killed 26 civilians. India attributed the attack to The Resistance Front, an offshoot of the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba, though Pakistan denied any involvement .

Pakistan condemned the Indian strikes as an “act of war,” reporting civilian casualties, including the death of a child and injuries to others. In response, Pakistan claimed to have shot down two Indian jets and vowed to retaliate at a time and place of its choosing . Both nations have since engaged in exchanges of fire across the Line of Control, and Pakistan has declared a state of emergency in Punjab, suspending commercial flights.

India and Pakistan have a history of conflicts, particularly over the disputed region of Kashmir. Both countries possess nuclear weapons, with India adhering to a “no first use” policy, while Pakistan maintains a more flexible stance, reserving the right to use nuclear weapons in response to conventional threats . Despite multiple military confrontations since their nuclearization in 1998, including the Kargil War in 1999 and the Balakot airstrikes in 2019, both nations have avoided crossing the nuclear threshold.

While the current situation is tense, a nuclear conflict remains unlikely. However, certain developments could increase the risk:

1. Continued Military Escalation: Ongoing skirmishes and retaliatory strikes could spiral out of control, leading to broader military engagement.
2. Breakdown of Communication: Disruption of diplomatic and military communication channels could result in misinterpretations and unintended escalations.
3. Domestic Political Pressures: Leaders in both countries may face internal pressures to take a hardline stance, potentially leading to aggressive actions.
4. Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Pakistan’s doctrine includes the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in response to conventional threats, which could provoke a strategic nuclear response from India.

A nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan would have catastrophic consequences, not only for the region but globally. Studies have suggested that even a limited nuclear exchange could result in significant casualties and environmental damage, with some theorizing that a nuclear exchange could lead to climate alteration affecting global agriculture and climate .

While the current hostilities are alarming, the likelihood of a nuclear exchange remains low, given historical precedents and the catastrophic consequences involved. However, the situation requires careful monitoring, and efforts should be made to de-escalate tensions through diplomatic channels. International actors, including the United Nations and major powers, should continue to encourage restraint and dialogue between India and Pakistan to prevent further escalation.

At all times, The DEFCON Warning System urges the public to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.