After Russia’s launch last week of its Oreshnik intermediate-range missile, state-owned propaganda outlet RT aired a video graphic depicting the missile’s flight times to major European capitals: 20 minutes to London and Paris, 15 minutes to Berlin and 12 minutes to Warsaw.
In his most aggressive nuclear signaling since invading Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly extolled the missile in public statements, claiming that NATO has no way to intercept it and warning that Moscow could use it against Kyiv’s “decision-making centers.” The missile is nuclear-capable, but for now, Putin says, it will be armed with multiple conventional warheads.
“We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” Putin warned in a Nov. 21 address, announcing the Oreshnik strike on an aerospace manufacturer in Dnipro, Ukraine.
Western leaders and analysts dismissed Putin’s rhetoric as more Russian saber-rattling, after yet another of Moscow’s red lines was crossed when President Joe Biden allowed Kyiv to use the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to strike targets inside Russia.
But Putin’s threat, clearly directed at Europe, comes at a critical moment, with the United States in political transition and Europe in trepidation of President-elect Donald Trump’s admiration for the Russian leader and the extent to which he could scale back Washington’s commitment to NATO. Meanwhile, Russia is steadily gaining ground in eastern Ukraine, intensifying pressure on Kyiv’s forces as Putin rules out any compromise to end the war.
Moscow’s use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile sends its own powerful signal about Putin’s determination to prevail in Ukraine, as he seeks to weaken NATO, split Europe from the United States, deter European support for Ukraine and bend Europe’s security architecture to Russia’s will.
The Oreshnik — meaning “hazelnut tree” — poses a direct and potentially devastating threat to Europe, even if conventionally armed, according to analysts.
It marks what some Western arms experts see as the opening shot in a new European arms race that could last for decades and consume billions of dollars in NATO countries and Russia, with Moscow already plowing about 40 percent of its budget into military and security forces.
