Does the rise of China as a nuclear strategic superpower present a fundamental threat to deterrence, arms control, and arms race stability? Experts contend that China has set in motion an ambitious nuclear modernization program that could result in a world with three significant nuclear peer great powers by the mid-2030s. A potential Chinese nuclear superpower also contributes to arguments in favor of the widespread modernization of the entire U.S. nuclear enterprise. The following analysis first considers authoritative threat assessments of China’s potential nuclear modernization and its implications for future international security. The second section provides some futuristic scenario analysis relevant to the possible combination of Russian and Chinese deployed strategic nuclear forces compared to those deployed by the United States.
The Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, in its final report in October 2023, noted that the U.S. deterrence strategy must change to address the 2027–2035 nuclear threat environment. According to the Commission, the U.S.-led international order and the values it upholds “are at risk from the Chinese and Russian authoritarian regimes,” and the risk of military conflict with those major powers has grown and “carries the potential for nuclear war.” As the Commission explains:
Today the United States is on the cusp of having not one, but two nuclear peer adversaries, each with ambitions to change the international status quo, by force, if necessary: a situation which the United States did not anticipate and for which it is not prepared. While the risk of a major nuclear conflict remains low, the risk of military conflict with either or both Russia and China, while not inevitable, has grown, and with it the risk of nuclear use, possibly against the U.S. homeland.
To address this and other anticipated national security challenges, the Commission recommends an ambitious nuclear and conventional force modernization program, a more resilient space architecture capable of offensive and defensive functions, U.S. defense industrial base expansion, nuclear infrastructure enhancement, and, where appropriate, nuclear arms control and-or measures of nuclear risk reduction. In addition, the United States should secure its technological supremacy, especially in emerging security and defense technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and big data analytics.
