Seoul-based news organization NK Pro on Wednesday released a list of predictions for this year amid fraying stability between nuclear-armed North Korea and its U.S.-allied neighbor.
The forecast spans topics from North Korean ballistic missiles to Russian involvement in the reclusive nation’s burgeoning nuclear weapons program.
The report follows on the heels of the North’s artillery drills on January 5 that prompted evacuation warnings on two South Korean islands in the Yellow Sea. The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains tense, with the potential to threaten both regional and global security.
Last year, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un‘s regime made surprising international moves, including the closure of embassies in Uganda, Angola, Hong Kong, and Spain. Kim’s visit to Russia to see President Vladimir Putin, apparently his first international trip in years, also made headlines.
South Korea‘s partial withdrawal from a 2018 inter-Korean military agreement, triggered by North Korea’s first successful launch of a spy satellite, and Pyongyang’s subsequent total withdrawal from the agreement, set the stage for heightened military tensions this year. The new report predicts an increase in activity along the demilitarized zone separating the two countries, potentially leading to a violent clash.
One scenario could see the North sending drones into its neighbor’s airspace, leading the South to scramble aircraft in response and the situation potentially spiraling out of control.
In addition, with the abandonment of the 2018 military agreement, that had established a de facto maritime buffer zone, North Korea may deploy warships into contested waters.
Such a move would heighten the risk of confrontation. During a visit to military forces near the demilitarized zone in December, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol emphasized a proactive approach, instructing troops to “act first, report later.”
The report suggests that North Korea might exploit the November 2024 U.S. presidential election to test the new American leader’s willingness to become involved on the Korean Peninsula.
