Dwindling military resources and a dearth of new targets have left Russian President Vladimir Putin struggling to respond to a rise of troubling drone attacks on Moscow.
Several analysts have noted in recent days that Putin has attempted to downplay dramatic attacks on the Russian capital – for which Ukraine has explicitly denied any responsibility, at least publicly. The attacks have gained widespread attention on social media, particularly in Russia, with some observers suggesting that they were the result of a false-flag operation orchestrated by the Kremlin to force national support for a new round of military conscriptions it likely needs.
Yet Putin’s response appears to discount that theory.
Instead of maximizing the attacks for propaganda purposes, the Russian leader’s reaction appears to be an attempt “to avoid exposing the limited options he has to retaliate against Ukraine,” the independent Institute for the Study of War concludes in a new analysis note.
The analysis points to Putin’s explanation earlier this week that Russian forces struck the Ukrainian military intelligence headquarters two or three days previously – before the strikes on Moscow began – and said Russia’s military continues to respond to Ukraine’s “war against Donbas,” the region of eastern Ukraine in which Russia first began meddling militarily in 2014 and the epicenter of the latest fighting.
The Russian leader appears to be framing the drone strikes as Ukrainian retaliation, citing “a group of strikes with long-range high-precision air-launched weapons at main decision-making centers” in Ukraine on Tuesday.
The claims could not be immediately verified.
“Putin’s emphasis on past and ongoing missile strikes is likely an attempt to signal that Russia is already actively retaliating and does not need to respond to further Ukrainian provocations,” the institute concludes. “Putin has consistently retaliated against genuine and purported Ukrainian actions by ordering massive missile and drone campaigns, likely due to Russian forces’ inability to achieve any decisive effects on the battlefield.”
