How can we say this with such certainty? Continue reading to learn why high alert levels are both short-lived and impossible to hide from the public.

The DEFCON Warning System makes no secret of the fact that the US military’s actual DEFCON level is classified, and for us to post it would be both unethical and highly illegal. That being said, with each military DEFCON level comes an automatic scripted series of events, most of which happen behind the scenes, but some of which just cannot be hidden from the public. Or from any nation with a satellite in orbit. The fact is, despite its classification, the US DEFCON level and the Russian alert level are the worst-kept military secrets on the planet – for people who understand the system and know what to watch for.

First, though, a little review. The default Defense Condition for the US military nuclear forces is DEFCON 5. This doesn’t indicate world peace, as some people incorrectly believe. It simply means the threat of a nuclear war is pretty low. Not impossible; just highly unlikely. There are scenarios where it’s possible to jump straight from DEFCON 5 to DEFCON 1 with no warning whatsoever.

The only difference between DEFCON 4 and DEFCON 5 is something is happening somewhere on the planet that has piqued the interest of the United States, something that involves a nuclear-armed nation and that requires a little extra attention, but the odds of a nuclear war are still considered unlikely. For this reason, both DEFCON 5 and 4 are considered “peacetime” alert levels. DEFCON 4 will usually last no longer than three months or so. By that time, the threat will either materialize or it won’t, and the level will be adjusted accordingly.

DEFCON 3 means that nuclear war has moved from the realm of “unlikely” to “possible.” Now the situation is becoming serious and needs to be monitored very closely. But this means round-the-clock surveillance and continuing analysis. Some minor but noticeable changes begin to take place that are visible to the public. However, the military cannot maintain those changes indefinitely because it would take a physical and emotional toll on personnel. This is called “alert fatigue,” which we have discussed before in a previous article. DEFCON 3 is not really designed to last longer than about four weeks or so before dropping back down to 4 or 5. The other possibility is it gets raised again to DEFCON 2.

DEFCON 2 is where we cross the threshold from nuclear war being “possible” to being “probable.” US armed forces must be ready to deploy within six hours at all times, and the physical and psychological stress of that level of preparation on people is exhausting. Military hardware will be operated for longer periods of time than normal. Security increases at military bases, especially bases that store nuclear weapons. That level of heightened alert cannot be sustained for long, and would only be implemented for a period of days, not weeks on end. There is absolutely no way to hide this level of military activity from the general public. People living near military bases are going to know something is going on, even if they don’t know what it is.

DEFCON 1. Well, chances are that means it’s game over and it will only be in effect for a matter of hours. However, there are scenarios where we could reach DEFCON 1 and still survive to drop back down. There could be a small exchange of tactical nuclear weapons before the leaders come to their senses and agree to back down before it escalates to a global exchange. A single nuclear weapon detonated by a terrorist group in a major city would also result in an immediate DEFCON 1 alert, but once it became clear that no further detonations are expected, the alert level would be gradually dropped back down. Or, it could be a mistake. Mistakes that have almost resulted in a nuclear war have occurred dozens of times over the past 70 years, some of which are highly publicized, others not quite as well-known.

Knowing how the alert levels are designed makes it easy to see why people making claims about “We have been at DEFCON 2 since Russia invaded Ukraine” are the internet equivalent of the man standing on the corner ringing a bell crying “BRING OUT YOUR DEAD!” He might get some attention the first few days he’s standing out there, but after a few weeks he just becomes part of the background noise and people ignore him, if they even notice him at all. Similarly, the higher DEFCON levels lose their meaning if they are used in perpetuity.

The DEFCON Warning System follows the philosophy that the more serious the alert level, the less time we’re going to spend there before dropping it back down if nothing develops. The fact that we are at DEFCON 5 during a Russian invasion of Ukraine doesn’t mean we think everything is just hunky-dory; it’s most definitely not. What it does mean is that our analysis indicates the exchange of nuclear weapons is not likely AT THIS POINT. We recognize the seriousness of the crisis in Europe, but we also recognize that our mission is to keep the public informed as to the risk of a nuclear war arising out of that crisis. That risk will wax and wane as long as the crisis lasts, and our DEFCON levels will reflect that.

Another difference between the US military DEFCON levels and ours which might also cause some confusion is scope of coverage. Under the US military system, it is possible for different theaters to fall under different DEFCON levels depending on the nature of the threat. Europe could be at DEFCON 3 while North America is at DEFCON 4. While we understand how that works and why, we have deliberately chosen to not follow that protocol. We use a single alert level that reflects the threat of a nuclear war regardless of where that threat is occurring on the planet. This is partially because we want to keep things as simple as possible for our civilian followers, and it’s partially because even a nuclear exchange that does not involve NATO or the United States – Pakistan and India, for example – will still have far-reaching global consequences that we believe people should prepare for. A major collapse of global stock markets following even a small nuclear exchange is just one example.

To summarize, we ask that the public understand that the higher our DEFCON level goes, the less time we will spend there. An easy method of remembering this is to use the following guideline:

DEFCON 5 – Indefinite
DEFCON 4 – Measured in months
DEFCON 3 – Measured in weeks
DEFCON 2 – Measured in days
DEFCON 1 – Measured in hours

One final comment: We state repeatedly that we are a private intelligence organization and that our DEFCON levels are meant for the general public. We do not claim to know what the US military’s DEFCON level is, nor would we publish it if we did. To do so would not only expose our military personnel to possible risk, but would also be a federal felony. It is ILLEGAL to reveal classified information. Therefore, we are advising everyone that if they see a social media post where someone is claiming they know the military’s DEFCON level to be “X,” they are either lying, or they are committing a very serious crime. Either way, their statements should be considered questionable at best. To be clear, DEFCON Warning System’s alert level does not reflect the military’s level in any way, shape, or form. They are designed for the general public to assist them with making decisions regarding the prospect of a nuclear war. It is, in fact, quite likely that our alert levels might sometimes be higher or lower than the military’s. There are three reasons for this: 1 – While we are quite experienced at analyzing the information we obtain, it is simply an honest fact that the military has access to information we do not. 2 – Since our alerts are designed for the public, we want to provide as much time as possible for them to make preparations and discuss options with their families. 3 – Under no circumstances do we want to create unwarranted panic within the public. This is why we also provide advice on how people should prepare at each alert level.

In its 39-year history, The DEFCON Warning System has never issued an alert to the public higher than DEFCON 3. Neither DEFCON 2 nor DEFCON 1 has never been declared by this organization, and you have our solemn vow that they never will be unless we are absolutely CERTAIN that the situation warrants it and the general public needs to prepare for the likelihood of a nuclear war.

We hope this article has been helpful. It is important for the public to not only be aware of the current DEFCON level, but to understand how and why we make some of the changes we do. We expect people to disagree with our decisions sometimes, and that is perfectly fine with us. We welcome constructive input and will do our best to answer honest questions. However, comments such as “You’re wrong. The actual level is X.” will be ignored and possibly removed. Comments like that provide no context nor room for discussion or debate and border on criminal behavior. They also clog up our social media feeds and make it more difficult for us to respond to people who might have legitimate concerns or questions.

Please feel free to comment below with any questions or comments you might have regarding this article. We will do our best to address anyone’s concerns or provide more details.

As always, thank you for your continued support.