The specter of nuclear war has loomed larger over the conflict in Ukraine in recent days. Russia’s recent announcement of a partial mobilization was paired with direct nuclear threats from President Vladimir Putin and Deputy Chairman of the country’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev. Now combined with continued losses on the battlefield and the sudden illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories in the country’s east and south, there appears to be a change in messaging and level of concern from the U.S. government and its NATO allies.
The possibility of Russia releasing the nuclear genie from its bottle after nearly 80 years is clearly being taken more seriously as is the potential for rapid escalation that could come as a result. And the stakes could not be any higher. A nuclear exchange is mankind’s problem, not just one of nations, and even a very limited use of a tactical nuclear weapon would change the course of human history. We wrote a recent primer on this rapidly developing issue that you can read here for full background.
So, what are the chances that Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
To bring clarity to this extremely challenging and pressing question, The War Zone reached out to the smartest people we know that live and breathe the nuclear weapons issue on a daily basis for their unfiltered opinion. Our participating subject matter experts are:
Hans Kristensen — Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Writes the bi-monthly Nuclear Notebook and the world nuclear forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook.
Ankit Panda — Expert on nuclear policy, Asia, missiles, & space. Stanton Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Author of ‘Kim Jong Un and the Bomb.’
Stephen Schwartz — Nonresident Senior Fellow at Bulletin Of Atomic Atomic Scientists, Fellow at N Square Collaborative, Editor/Co-author ‘Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940’.
Michael Kofman — Director, Russia Studies at CNA. Senior Adjunct Fellow, CNAS.
We sent this impressive group the same questions independently so that their responses could be as direct and unfiltered as possible. Here they are in full.
