This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 7 P.M. UTC, Thursday, September 29th, 2022. Condition code is Blue. DEFCON 4.
There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time, however there are events occurring in the world theatre which require closer monitoring.
The situation in the Ukraine theatre is growing more concerning. Battlefield losses by Russia is causing Russia to consider more desperate moves as it faces an increasingly bleak outlook. Recent mobilizations are not expected to turn the tide of battle in their favour. Options for Russia are becoming increasingly limited.
The U.S. government is more concerned about nuclear weapons use by Russia in the Ukraine war than they are publicly expressing.
The DEFCON Warning System advises those in the Ukraine theatre to take steps necessary in the event of nuclear weapons use. There is no cause for alarm, and there is no sign that nuclear weapons are about to be deployed. This is merely a cautionary statement. Experts continue to express that there is little chance that Russia will use nuclear weapons in this war.
Russia has issued a partial mobilization as the war in Ukraine continues. It has additionally threatened use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory, which some believe reference captured Ukrainian land. Russian vice speaker of Federation Council states that an attack on the liberated territories will become an attack on Russia with “all the consequences”. Russia has also said that new regions can be defended by strategic nuclear weapons.
Russian Maritime Doctrine to shift focus to Arctic and Pacific regions. Meanwhile, NATO has called on member States to replenish their reserves as soon as possible. Speculation is that NATO has expended much of their armament in the Ukraine war along with Russia which is experiencing supply problems.
Russia seems to have scaled back its demands in Ukraine and now says its military campaign will continue “at a minimum” until the Donetsk region is controlled.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline was damaged in what is being called a deliberate act. It is widely believed that Russia will formally accuse the United States at a U.N. meeting on Friday. The U.S. denies attacking the pipeline and that NATO will not rule out military action against the entity it believes was responsible.
North Korea has passed a law permitting nuclear first strikes. South Korea claims that North Korea may conduct a nuclear test in a few weeks.
In Iran, the United States has said that a nuclear deal with Iran is unlikely in the near future. Iran continues to insist that the IAEA end its probe into traces of uranium found at undeclared nuclear sites.
The United States and the Philippines are discussing a possible increase in the number of U.S. military bases in the country. The United States says it would use its military forces to defend Taiwan from an invasion.
The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack. If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it. Your readings will vary. Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.
For immediate updates, go to www.defconwarningsystem.com. Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed DEFCONWSAlerts. You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list. Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays. The next scheduled update is 9 P.M. UTC, October 20th, 2022. Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.
This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.
