Ukraine’s quest for permission to launch long-range strikes on Russian territory seemed to have been resolved in October when, after hearing Zelensky’s “Victory Plan,” the Biden administration decided not to give the green light. Now, with the dust settled on Trump’s resounding presidential victory, Biden’s reversal of this position last Sunday was an unexpected escalation. It moved reporting from how the new administration would approach peace talks to sensational images of rockets and more war. To mark the one-thousandth day of the war, Ukraine fired Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMs) into the Bryansk Oblast. Russia has responded by officially promulgating its new nuclear doctrine, underlining starkly its willingness to go “all the way” if necessary. Now, it is unclear if we stand on the brink of World War III or if, once again, it is all just another flash in the pan of informational warfare.
Officials from the Biden administration and the Pentagon have not made any clear statements to justify the rationale behind the decision. Why give the permission now, two months before Trump comes into office and attempts to make a peace deal in Ukraine? Most reporting usually presents the green light as a response to Russia’s imminent use of North Korean troops to retake the Kursk Oblast. U.S. and NATO officials have declared North Korea’s involvement an escalation from the Russian side, even though the presence of North Korean soldiers on the battlefield is still contested.
If we assume this decision is not simply based on Biden’s desire to spite Trump, what could the rationale be? One reading is that it is an attempt to deter escalation—by threatening escalation. Understandably, Washington wants to stop a deterioration of Ukraine’s position prior to the opening of negotiations. But why do this when Biden is a lame-duck president without a mandate to justify his escalatory action? Furthermore, it appears the credo of “standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes” has quietly collapsed. Now, a range of analysts talk about the inevitability of making a deal with Putin. Trump’s return to the White House is expected to accelerate this process.
The real reason for the green light lies in the worsening situation on the ground in Ukraine. On the same weekend that Biden’s decision was reported, Russia launched its largest air strike in months, targeting nuclear power substations and energy infrastructure connecting Ukraine to its Western neighbors. Moscow is signaling it can shut down Ukraine’s energy grid this winter, which could not only have catastrophic humanitarian consequences but also accelerate Ukraine’s military collapse. In this context, America’s ATACMs permission slip is a feeble riposte. There is no strong reason to think the use of these missiles can have any serious impact on the course of the war. Sources informed The Times that Ukraine only has around fifty missiles at this time. After they have been fired, Ukraine will still be on the road to defeat. Russia will most likely be more infuriated, stubborn, and vindictive. The degeneration of the West’s strategy in Ukraine has reached an endgame few would have expected back in 2022. Long-range strikes are a desperate gamble to deter Russia from aggressively pursuing gains prior to the opening of negotiations in which Kyiv may well be pressured to give up 20 percent of its sovereign territory.
