Russia’s historical paranoia casts a long shadow. This paranoia is deeply rooted in a history of invasions, from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 1600s, Sweden in the 1700s, and Napoleon in the 1800s to Germany in the 20th century.
These events have shaped Russia’s defensive posture and complicated Western attempts to predict its responses to military escalations. The West, often projecting its perspectives onto Russia, fails to fully grasp these historical and cultural differences, leading to a dangerous game of assumptions. This is especially true when considering that, at present, only Russia can unleash an apocalypse on the United States that could functionally end its existence in under thirty minutes.
While much contemporary concern regarding nuclear escalation in the context of the Russia-Ukraine War focuses on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons and the recent revision to Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, the real danger lies somewhere else. Regarding acts of intentional policy, deterrence is likely to hold. This deterrence does not apply to misperception or miscommunication-related accidents. Accidents commonly arise in the fog of modern crises. As decision-makers grapple with overwhelming volumes of information, the risk of catastrophic misinterpretations looms large.
Technological failures, especially in Russia’s relatively outdated nuclear early warning systems, exacerbate this risk. A recent example is Ukraine’s drone strike on Russia’s early warning system in May 2024, in which a Ukrainian drone traveled over 1,800 kilometers to strike the Aramvir radar station. Such incidents could inadvertently escalate tensions by providing misleading information. Though unlikely, the potential for a nuclear response from Russia cannot be entirely dismissed.
History has shown us how close the world has come to nuclear disaster due to misunderstandings and technical errors.
Take, for instance, the story of Vasili Arkhipov in 1962. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Arkhipov was aboard the Soviet submarine B-59, which was authorized to launch a nuclear torpedo if attacked. In a moment of immense pressure, Arkhipov convinced the captain to delay the decision, averting a potential nuclear war. His calm and reasoned judgment in the face of chaos saved the world from disaster.
