DEFCON Warning System – Update 8/1/19

This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 2 P.M., Thursday, August 1st, 2019. Condition code is Green. DEFCON 5.

There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has currently subsided, though tensions are still at a very high level. Concerning is the weak British response to Iran’s capture of its ship. This will likely embolden Iran to make more aggressive movements, however at this time Iran is not directly challenging major players like the United States. This will change in time as there is currently no effective defense against swarm attacks by small swift-water boats. The region will be an area that continues to need monitoring.

Iran says that it will restart activities at the Arak heavy water nuclear reactor. Additionally, the UN has discovered evidence of illicit nuclear activity at a site Iranian officials claimed was an innocuous carpet factory, indicating that nuclear materials were housed at the facility in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal. The DEFCON Warning System continues to believe Iran is working on its nuclear programme.

Russia, following the U.S., has officially pulled out of the INF treaty. The United States is testing hypersonicmissiles, a technology Russia is working on, though Russia’s claims of progress are suspect. The Pentagon warns that the U.S. is ill-equipped to deal with Russian disinformation and growing influence in the world. It also cautions against the growing alignment between Russia and China. To Russia’s concern, the United States is sending 1,000 additional troops to Poland.

China is looking to swarm drones to attack enemy vessels. China’s Defense Ministry has confirmed the test firing of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile the Pentagon regards as a strategic weapon capable of striking anywhere in the United States from underwater launch points. China has also claimed advancement in stealth technology, rendering all current radar ineffective at tracking it. Unlike Russian claims of advancement, Chinese claims must be looked at much harder to determine their validity.

The United States continues to hold back on large-scale military exercises with South Korea, despite recent missile launches by North Korea. These missile launches are not being read as escalatory, but rather an attempt to bring the U.S. back to the negotiating table. Nevertheless, the United States Forces Korea has said that North Korea’s Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile is capable of reaching anywhere in the U.S. mainland.

Joint air patrol by both China and Russia have allegedly enter South Korea air space, prompting South Korea to fire warning shots at the intruders. North Korea hints it may resume nuclear weapons testing if the United States and South Korea continue with war games.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack. If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it. Your readings will vary. Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.

For immediate updates, go to Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed DEFCONWSAlerts. You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list. Note that Twitter and You Tube updates may be subject to delays. The next scheduled update is 2 P.M. Pacific Time, August 1st, 2019. Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.

This concludes this broadcast of the DEFCON Warning System.

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